The Worst Industry After The Outbreak: We Just Have To Stop Production And Encourage Us To Resign.

"Coordinates Dalian, clothing factory, announced the holiday."
"Coordinates Dongguan, shoe factories, common We encourage us to resign collectively. "

"The coordinates of Zhejiang, textile mills have declared their holidays."
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Development has never been behind closed doors. Under economic globalization, China has affected the world and the world is also affecting China. Since the outbreak of the new crown, China's economy has been stagnant, and the world has been affected by the shutdown of the world's factories.
Now, after tough epidemics, many industries in China are slowly returning to work, and even large shopping malls and catering and service industries are starting to start. However, an industry has gone through a lot of hard work to get back to work, but once again suffered a fatal blow.
This industry is the foreign trade industry, especially the textile and garment industry with the largest export proportion. Many factories have been cancelled, and the foreign trade industry has been completely cold.

Textile and garment industry is going through a severe winter.
"I am a garment foreign trade. I haven't been back for a long time. Now I am faced with the pain of no order, and I don't know when the epidemic will end."
Overseas outbreaks were suddenly out of control, and the economy began to stop for an instant. The momentum of China's foreign trade enterprises has just been restored, and has been pressed by overseas epidemic.
The outbreak of new crown pneumonia is spreading around the world, and more than 160 countries and regions have confirmed cases. As of March 24, 2020, the number of overseas confirmed cases has reached 300 thousand, with the death toll exceeding 13 thousand, and the situation is very serious.
The biggest hit overseas is the domestic textile industry. The textile factories specializing in export receive a large number of overseas cancellation orders every day.
"ADI and Nike in Canada are closed."
"I have an order for JCP, and I am sending an email today to inform us of the suspension."
"I was ordered to withdraw 300 thousand meters yesterday, and the customers called for a moratorium. They were all on board production. How to stop? Now it is really not done. It's not done. It's not a mess."
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The boss is worried that the staff are more worried and affected by the epidemic. Overseas businessmen can only postpone the delivery of the order that has been paid, and cancel the order without payment, and there is no new order. A large number of foreign trade workers began to complain:
"The foreign trade is going to be cool. Today, the manager said several large US clients would cancel the order, and the company would not go bankrupt." I thought I could work hard this year. "
"The most worrying thing is still happening. American customers are beginning to cancel orders. They can not be postponed. Most of the orders are gone. Is the situation so grim?"
"In the morning, they received messages from Europe and the United States, and the boss came to an emergency meeting to cancel all orders from Europe and the United States. It was horrible to stop taking orders. I feel that the European and American epidemic is going on like this, and the foreign trade industry has been seized."
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No matter whether the order is cancelled or reduced, the days of these enterprises are rather bitter. Most of them are labor-intensive industries. Now the labor cost is decreasing, and many enterprises are forced to "take a vacation" to reduce their operating costs. As for when the holiday is coming, it may be two or three months or longer. All this depends on the effect of global epidemic prevention and control and the degree of economic recovery.
If the employee voluntarily proposes to leave, the salary can also be released until the end of March this year, according to the actual days.
The impact of clothing upstream and downstream, domestic and foreign
The European and American epidemic affected the clothing and foreign trade's spring and summer orders, and the owners of winter clothing were also worried about being affected.
Although the sales season of down jacket is in late autumn and winter, the owner of a down garment factory said that his heart has been hanging up since the outbreak of the European epidemic. "I am worried that the epidemic will not be controlled and orders will be cancelled." The European customers of this factory are located in Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Britain and other countries. These countries have been seriously affected by the epidemic recently.
Boss Cao Hui (pseudonym) told the "finance and economics" reporter, the current sent to Italy samples, information has been relatively difficult, he worried that France and other countries will also have difficulties in succession. "When they were in contact with the Italy guests, they were very indifferent. Now they are nervous. Let's send masks. We send out a lot of masks."
Cao Hui's factory, in addition to down jacket and other coat products, said that some American customers told him that the situation was bad. He had expected to send a batch of thin jacket products in April. The American customer told him that he needed time to consider whether he wanted to produce the goods.
Down jacket is usually received in March -4 months, and shipped in June -8 months. He said recently the customer had made some orders, but he was not at ease. He hoped that the customers would pay the deposit, some customers would like to, and some did not agree.
In principle, the customer can not cancel the orders already produced, but Cao Hui is worried that the epidemic will have more negative effects on the European and American markets. If consumer confidence continues to decline, customers will still cancel the order, so he chooses to postpone the shipment date, temporarily not produce, continue to observe the situation of the client country, and further negotiate the production plan if the epidemic situation improves.
The impact is also upstream. Tianhong textile is one of the largest suppliers of core cotton textiles in the world. Its factory in Xuzhou is a medium-sized factory for making yarns. A staff member told the finance and economics reporter that the export oriented Chinese clothing industry chain is greatly affected by the epidemic in Europe and America. The yarn is the upstream raw material of the garment, the weaving mill purchases yarn and weaving, then sells the cloth to the printing and dyeing factory, and the printing and dyeing factory supplies cloth to the garment factory. The epidemic first affected the domestic sales and export orders of garments, affecting the re transmission to upstream printing and dyeing, fabrics, and then weaving, weaving back to spinning. "Now the upstream textile, printing and dyeing, fabric and downstream clothing enterprises are very cautious in their attitude, and do not plan for large-scale procurement of raw materials as usual."
At present, the price of cotton yarn is also falling. According to data and futures data of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, cotton yarn prices and cotton prices are down in the near future.
China supplies large quantities of raw materials and semi-finished products to Southeast Asian factories, and the epidemic has also struck a blow to the supply chain in Southeast Asia. Tong Cheng, managing director of global operations, a large garment manufacturer in China and Southeast Asia, told the finance and economics reporter that the epidemic is continuing in the world, and that more stringent epidemic prevention policies have been implemented in many countries, and even require enterprises to produce non essentials for a short period of time. This has had an impact on overseas production lines of Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Mauritius.
Not only foreign trade, but also the impact of the epidemic on the domestic market.
Barbara is Semir group's children's clothing, and the factory owner who provides ODM (Design + production) services for the brand tells the finance and economics reporter that Barbara has told the factory that all orders that have not been operated have been suspended, and that the shipment has been shipped, and that the amount payable in February has not yet been concluded until April. The brand has also asked suppliers to help sell goods, ranking suppliers, and vice presidents have also made live broadcasts.
The factory owners said that balbala, Taiping bird, and seven wolves have opened a large number of domestic brands of physical stores, and the pressure is very high. Many brands rush to ship, and the boss takes the lead in selling them at a cost less than in the circle of friends. In order to survive, some brands have begun to lay off staff.
Insiders say that some factories operate under the condition of arrears of downstream raw material manufacturers' accounts and arrears of workers' wages. Wang Fubin, a foreign trader, said that the transaction between the brand and the factory is a credit sale mode. The operation order is 2 -3 months, and 2 -3 months after shipment, the money has not been put into operation for a long time. The factory has to pay for the operation and pay for labor. If the financial condition is not good, it may be difficult to maintain during the epidemic.
　　 When can consumer demand recover?
The recovery of consumption is on the one hand the Chinese market and the overseas market on the one hand. At present, China's epidemic situation has been controlled, but there are continuous imported cases from overseas. Many white-collar workers still require companies to work in their homes. Although the business circle is open, the flow of people is far from normal.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 20.5% in the month of January -2, of which clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles decreased by 30.9% compared with the same period of the previous year. Although the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 3%, the growth rate of consumption was about 18.1% of the consumption and consumption of goods.
At the same time, international brands relying on China's supply chain are still in the process of epidemic prevention. At present, Zara, H&M, UNIQLO, Nike, Adidas and other Chinese brands closely cooperate with the Chinese manufacturers have closed stores in Europe and the United States, including Zara has closed 3785 stores worldwide, its Spanish stores are closed.
Factory owners are also judging the epidemic situation in Europe and America through the duration of the Chinese epidemic. They think it is possible that European and American countries will need more time to control the epidemic. At the same time, after opening a store, we need to clear up some of the inventory backlog, and the garment industry chain will really take a turn for the better. It may take half a year. What we can do now is to cash in the king, not to overstock the stock and avoid being defaulted.
Many bosses said that they had been doing psychological construction in a protracted war with the epidemic. "The next 3 -6 months may be more difficult." One dealer said. But in the long run, he is not worried. "I still have confidence in fighting the epidemic." Another Wang surnamed bu also believes that the market will not change overnight, but the 3 -6 will always improve after a month.
From the retail point of view, insiders believe that this stage is the most fundamental way to survive the epidemic and crisis. The brand must be set up by the whole company to do a few things well, first of all, to protect the capital chain, the second is to clear inventory, and the third is to expand online channels.
Some clothing industry practitioners generally believe that the so-called retaliatory rebound of consumption will not occur after the outbreak. Because the purchase intention is suppressed during the epidemic period, there will be a consumption climax after the consumption recovery. They hope that after the epidemic situation, clothing consumption can return to the previous level.
The clothing practitioner said that at present, some clothing enterprises are already distributing summer, autumn and winter products, but there is no bigger phenomenon than the same period last year. "All aspects of economic life are affected in 2020, and the consumer confidence index will not recover very well." The possibility is that, because of the strength of the capital, some brands will cease to operate and go out, and will be partitioned by the stronger brands of the market. Therefore, it is an opportunity for some brands to re shuffle the market.
She expects clothing consumption to resume until May 1st, and expects the "May 1" holiday to bring a qualitative leap to the market recovery.
Large manufacturers have seen signs of warming. A producer of a large producer said that in the early days of the Chinese market, some customers had cut orders due to lower demand forecasts, but some customers have increased their orders recently. "They believe that the domestic epidemic has been controlled and the business is expected to resume growth." He said that some other customers, because other suppliers had not been able to return to normal production, turned around to place orders for Yida.
A clothing supplier said that with the control of domestic epidemic situation, the next domestic market may be better, "many people have been able to move around, and my wholesalers expect to buy goods nationwide after ten days."
For brands and factories in the industry chain, perhaps now is the time to be bold. "I suggest that you should make some definite orders now, keep the 30%-40%'s advance quantity, enter, attack, retreat and defend. If the market does not anticipate that the market will increase in the future, there will be room for maneuver. If the recovery is better, the order can be increased again." The clothing supplier said.