Polyester Factory Production And Marketing "Interception", Weaving Orders Have No "Bottom Line"!

The fragile global economic recovery is facing new obstacles. The surge of new crown virus infection may cause businesses to continue to shut down and consumers are nervous.

According to WHO data, the number of new crown virus infections in June 21st has increased by a single day. The epidemic in the United States is rising, and there are also new cases in Germany and Australia. Although China says the epidemic in Beijing is under control, cases are still increasing rapidly in large emerging economies including Brazil, India and Indonesia. Germany, Spain, Morocco and other countries are now infected. Two counties in Germany have returned to the "sealed city" because of the outbreak of the meat factory. The US multi state epidemic has rebounded and the plan has been changed again. The mayor of Paris, Hidalgo, has confirmed that South Africa will start the first clinical trial of the new crown vaccine in Africa. The total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia has exceeded 9 million 440 thousand cases, and over 482 thousand cases have died.

"The battle is far from over," said Tuuli McCully, head of Asia Pacific Economic Region in Singapore. "A serious second round of outbreaks in developed economies poses a major risk to the global economy that has just begun to recover."

The high frequency data tracked by Bloomberg economic research show that with the relaxation of the blockade measures, the traffic and catering industry has improved. A sustained increase in cases may jeopardize or even reverse this trend.

The global economy is changing, and the trade war between the US and Europe has started.

According to Bloomberg news, the United States is considering new tariffs on exports worth 3 billion 100 million US dollars to France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. The United States had early signs of a trade war launched in Europe. Mnuchin, the US Treasury Secretary, has warned that if the European countries push ahead with the "digital tax" plan, the United States may impose tariffs on those countries.

According to Bloomberg reports, the United States is introducing new tariffs on the $3 billion 100 million export products from France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, which is part of the Trump administration's measures to deal with European countries. The US trade representative hopes to impose new tariffs on European exports of Olives, beer, gin and trucks, and raise tariffs on aircraft, cheese and yogurt, the report said.

The European Union also has big moves. The European Union has asked the World Trade Organization (WTO) to impose tariffs on US $11 billion 200 million worth of goods, which will hit us agriculture and fisheries, Bloomberg reported.

In addition, with the increase in the number of coronavirus cases in the United States, the European Union is considering the prohibition of American travelers. EU countries can ban travelers from the United States, Russia and Brazil, according to a draft list of travellers from acceptable countries based on the New York Times. At present, the total number of confirmed cases in the United States is in the leading position in the world, while Brazil is the second most confirmed country.

Compared with the turbulent relationship between the US and Europe, the industry worries more about the impact of the economic and trade frictions between the US and Europe on the global economic and trade environment. According to the European trade policy observers, the European Union has shown "immunity" after the Trump administration adopted a nearly one term "tariff pressure" contact strategy on the economic and trade issue to the European Union. This is not only due to the high degree of interdependence between European and American economic and trade relations, but also from the fact that the EU itself has a considerable economic scale.

But for the global economy affected by the epidemic this year, which needs to be revival and revival, the constant outbreak of economic and trade frictions between the US and Europe is definitely not good news.

On the 24 day, IMF released the latest world economic outlook and comprehensively lowered the expected growth rate of the global economy. IMF expects the global GDP growth rate to be -4.9% in 2020, when it was expected to be -3%. The US GDP growth rate is expected to be -8% in 2020, which was expected to be -5.9%. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is expected to be -10.2%, which was expected to be -7.5%.

IMF said that the expected global economic downturn in 2020 was due to the impact of the new crown virus on consumption than originally expected. If the second wave of new crown pneumonia outbreak occurred in 2021, the global economic growth rate could be reduced to 0.5% in that year.

The current recession is the most serious since the great depression. Although the blockade in parts of Europe and the United States has been gradually lifted, some economists have envisaged the recovery of V, but the acceleration of the growth rate of the case will threaten the recovery.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said: "the outbreak of the outbreak has shifted the V recovery to the direction of U recovery."

Catherine Mann, Citigroup's chief economist and former chief economist of OECD, said that the improvement of consumer confidence will be the core of recovery so that investment and employment can be restored. The latest outbreak is not conducive to this prospect.

"From any angle, form or form, the recovery is not satisfactory," she said at the Crawford Leadership Forum at Australian National University on Monday.

The recent surge in the epidemic situation is again overshadowing the textile and garment industry chain in the off-season.

The recent surge of new crown virus infection has not only made the nervous work of global epidemic prevention suddenly strained, but also put a shadow on the textile and garment industry in the off-season. The textile industry is doomed to encounter the most "mild" off-season this summer.

1, the serious loss phenomenon of garment enterprises caused by the epidemic has not stopped.

According to the latest report of the International Federation of textile manufacturers (ITMF), from the March 1, 2020 epidemic to June 8, 2020, textile orders around the world dropped by more than 40%. Among them, orders for fiber producers decreased by 42%, orders for cotton mills decreased by 44%, orders for textile mills decreased by 46%, and orders for garment manufacturers dropped by 37%.

Recently, the clothing brands announced the first quarter sales performance, and the data can not help but sigh.

(1) Adidas: operating profit fell 93% to 65 million euros in the first quarter, and sales decreased by 19% to 4 billion 753 million euros (about 5 billion 320 million US dollars).

(2) Puma; after the exchange rate adjustment in the first quarter, sales fell by 1.3% to 1 billion 300 million euros (about 1 billion 400 million US dollars); operating profit fell 50% to 71 million 200 thousand euros.

(3) The TJX Companies, Inc: net sales in the first quarter were US $4 billion 409 million, compared with us $9 billion 278 million in the same period last year. The net loss was $887 million.

(4) Zara parent Inditex group: the first quarter sales fell to 3 billion 303 million euros (about 3 billion 700 million U.S. dollars), operating losses 508 million euros in the quarter, and net loss 409 million euros in the quarter.

More data show that Nike is in the 3-5 month of the peak of the epidemic in Europe and America, operating income fell by 4% compared with the same period last year, with a net loss of 790 million US dollars in the quarter.

The epidemic situation is still spreading abroad, and the serious loss of clothing enterprises caused by the epidemic has not stopped.

2, polyester factory price is miserable, production and marketing is barely enough.

Since June, the rise of international crude oil has driven up the price of polyester raw materials, thus stimulating the price of polyester. But in recent days, the price of polyester has begun to drop. Throughout the first half of this year, the price of polyester is still declining, and the prices of all products are about 20% lower than the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period last year, it is even more miserable. Specifically, the FDY product has dropped by nearly 28% compared with the same period last year. The POY product has dropped by over 30% compared with the same period last year, while the DTY product has dropped by about 26% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of production and marketing, in general, manufacturers will have more or less stockpiling operations before the holidays. However, before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, manufacturers' enthusiasm for replenishment is not good. In addition to the promotion of polyester manufacturers to promote the POY products clinch a deal, the rest of the products are generally shown in production and marketing, and the production and sales exceed 100 quotations for only one day, and even can be described by "reluctance".

"Low price", "lowest price" and "lower price"! Weaving enterprises have no bottom line.

It can be seen that the orders in every link of the whole industry chain are shrinking, and the order of textile manufacturers as the intermediate link is the most obvious. This also directly causes the market bargaining power to be weak, and the profits of enterprises are even more difficult.

In the past, the gross profit of weaving factories was around 10%. Now the profit is almost 5%. Some of them even suffer from a slight loss or even a lot of pressure.

From the cost point of view, the cost of labor and electricity rent has not decreased compared with the previous years. Some of the scarce jobs have been increased at the beginning of the year. Raw materials in May are slowly rising, and the market competition is fierce. Most of the cloth owners still do not have a raise in price.

Take the most conventional polyester taffeta in the market as an example. At present, the market price is less than 1 yuan / m, but the raw material price increase has exceeded 1000 yuan / ton in recent years. Due to the large capacity and low threshold, the output of polyester taffe is also astonishing, and the social inventory is also large. This also leads to the weak bargaining power of manufacturers, facing the current market, unable to increase the price. According to the current raw material price, 190T polyester taff has entered a loss mode.

Before the market heard that using high-end looms to make low-end products, we can see that in order to pick up the manufacturers, it is all right. "In the past, my business philosophy was to make quality customers, not to price war, but this year's market is so, we have more and more stocks, so I can only put down my perseverance and sell products at a low price." "I do not have a big bottom line at the moment, so I will do it as long as I do not lose," said a person in charge of the fabric manufacturer of Chun Ya textile.

It is reported that in the domestic market, the market has not yet fully recovered. At present, the stock market is high and the homogenization competition is fierce. Therefore, there are "low price", "lowest price" and "lower price". Take 320T spring Asias as an example. This year, the price of finished products of 320T spring yarns is more than 3 yuan, and last year the price is still grey cloth price. At this low price fabric, the boss of the textile mill is considering not making money, but how to return the funds and reduce the stock.

"At present, half of the machines in our factory are being opened. We are now pushing the sales to take orders. As long as we do not lose, we will do it, mainly to feed workers, and fear that the market will get up, and the workers will not be able to make it more difficult." Another textile boss Shen general said.

In July, most textile people were prepared mentally. After all, according to the historical situation, if there is a big market in the weaving Market, it usually happens in 3-4 or 9-10 months. Generally, there will not be a big market in the 7-8 months. That is, under the off-season, the market will have to face the pressure of overstock. Only this year's stock pressure is too large. It may not have met the situation in the past 6 years. Position, consciously limit the inventory, rather than blind production, and turn the capital into stock, so as to avoid being in a difficult position in the competitive pressure.