Polyester Factory Sells Crazy, But Why Can'T Polyester Filament Sell?

According to past experience, the upstream raw material price increase can drive the polyester market up and induce some grey cloth to carry goods, but this method has failed recently.

In recent years, before the holidays or at the end of the month, manufacturers will have more or less stockpiling operations, but this time around the end of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, manufacturers' enthusiasm for replenishment is extremely poor. In addition to the promotion of polyester manufacturers to promote the POY products clinch a deal, the rest of the products are generally shown in production and marketing, and the production and sales exceed 100 quotations for only one day, and even can be described by "reluctance".

Generally speaking, the phased consumption demand of polyester filament and polyester is determined by the seasonal consumption of the terminal and the starting rate of weaving machines in downstream weaving factories. When the load of the looms on the downstream looms increases obviously, the consumption of raw materials will increase. In most cases, the weaving enterprises will advance stocking ahead of time to ensure the continuous supply of raw materials in order to maintain the continuity of production and the stable delivery period.

However, from the first half of this year, in the first quarter of the year, there was a relatively positive correlation between the loom startup and polyester filament production and sales in the first quarter of the national resumption stage. The other two times did not show strong correlation. The interference factors were mainly two points. The abnormal wide width of the upstream raw materials caused the market to be cautious and risk averse. Passing on is not smooth.

First of all, from the first point of view, due to the historical low price of the chemical fiber products in the first half of 2020, the fluctuation of the raw materials affected the change of demand side of polyester filament through the "speculation" mentality of downstream. In the early April, the order of textile enterprises in Qingming holidays was light, and the production and output were reduced. However, due to the low price of raw materials and the rebound in crude oil, it was expected to cause a huge bottom up. Polyester filament in the loom started a sharp decline in production, while production and sales rose to more than 300%.

Secondly, the second point is that because of the adverse impact of health and safety incidents on the domestic and global real economy, the consumption of terminal spun garments has shrunk seriously, and the order of weaving enterprises has declined sharply compared with the same period. From May to early June, the opening rate of domestic weaving enterprises showed a trend of gradual increase. However, during this period, the demand for polyester filament was fluctuating and the overall performance was poor, mainly due to speculative buying in the early stage. Raw material inventory is adequate, but the terminal order is low, looms start up and directly increase the storage rate of finished products, and then the vicious cycle is: the terminal order is sluggish - weaving factories "more and more less" - raw polyester and grey fabric storage is serious - squeezing cash flow - starting load increasing, accelerating storehouse - capital realisation, inventory weakening purchasing power - loom load increasing but demand for polyester filament. Sharp decline.

At the same time, the textile market began to enter the traditional off-season in July. In previous years, it was time for weaving enterprises to store their grey cloth. In the first half of this year, because of the impact of the epidemic, foreign trade exports basically stagnated. There was a large backlog of stocks in the warehouse.

There are cloth boss on ridicule said, now not in the warehouse pile up several million meters of stock, are embarrassed to tell others that you are doing textile.

It can be said that in today's weaving enterprises, stocks are stacked up in warehouses and belong to the normal state. There is still room for stacking in warehouses. Otherwise, the business is particularly good, or else the warehouse is bigger than others.

According to data monitoring, the average inventory of grey fabric in weaving enterprises has exceeded 43 days, reaching the highest level in the year.

At the same time, the start-up rate is not optimistic, and has dropped to less than 70%.

Therefore, under such circumstances, it is not surprising that weaving enterprises have chosen to cut down production and stop production. If the weaving enterprises do not produce, they will not buy silk, so it will be more difficult for them to increase their prices. (source: Zhuo Chuang chemical, China silk net)