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63, Down 68% Year On Year! The Number Of Shopping Centers Opened In The First Half Of The Year Reached A Record Low

2020/7/21 19:41:00 2

Shopping CenterCommercial Real EstateEast China

Epidemic situation, suspension of business, rent-free, restart, live with goods, consumer coupons, stall economy, cinema return to work In the first half of 2020, the commercial real estate industry is like a fantasy film, which integrates all elements such as adventure, confrontation, restart, life first, positive justice value and so on.

When the "pause" button is pressed in the whole city, the opening time nodes of the commercial entities waiting to enter the market are also forced to be postponed, and the new business increment has also reached a new low.

According to media statistics, in the first half of 2020, there are only 63 new commercial projects in China (excluding professional markets, hotels and office buildings, and the commercial building area is more than or equal to 20000 square meters). The newly added GFA commercial building area is 4.4182 million cubic meters, and the average single building area is 70100 square meters. According to the 55% occupancy rate, the newly increased gla commercial rental area is 2.43 million cubic meters, and the average unit rental area is 38600 cubic meters.

   A sharp drop of 68% year on year, a new low in recent five years

Relatively speaking, the first half of the year is a period of cautious supply of shopping centers. This year, affected by special circumstances, many projects have chosen to postpone the opening of business, resulting in a new low number of opening in the first half of this year. According to the statistics of Lianshang Retail Research Center, in the first half of 2020, the total number of business was 63, with a year-on-year drop of 68%.

In terms of the number of business opened in the first half of the last five years and the year-on-year change, from 2016 to 2018, the number increased year by year. In 2018, the number reached 228. Although it declined compared with the same period in 2019, it was also the second highest year in recent five years.

From the perspective of year-on-year increase and decrease, 2018 reached the peak in the past five years, with a year-on-year increase of more than 37%; in 2016 and 2017, the average annual increase was 13% and 3% respectively, and it began to fall back to 15% in 2019.

Excluding the factors affected by the epidemic in 2020, in fact, the supply of commercial real estate in China is still rising. Although there are many similar "saturation" voices in the industry, and the cautious attitude is slightly revealed, developers are still optimistic about the market acceptance.

   South China leader in East China

East China, which has the largest GDP provinces Zhejiang, Jiangsu and the national economic center Shanghai, is still the regional overlord, with nearly 40% of the total business volume accounting for almost half of the total, including 8 in Jiangsu, 7 in Zhejiang, 5 in Jiangxi, 2 in Shanghai, 1 in Fujian and 1 in Anhui.

Compared with South China, which has another big GDP Province, Guangdong, the economic environment of Southwest China is relatively poor. However, the performance in the first half of this year is extremely active, leaping to the second place with the total number of 11 business operations. This is the third consecutive year in which it has surpassed South China in business volume in the first half of the year.

The strength of the southwest market is attributed to Chengdu and Chongqing, which are listed as the top 11 cities in the first half of this year. At the same time, the performance of other cities is also remarkable. Guiyang and Zunyi in Guizhou, Neijiang, Zigong and Ziyang in Sichuan have opened projects.

Thanks to the consumption vitality of the two first tier cities in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, many well-known real estate enterprises have concentrated their supply. The local real estate enterprises such as poly, Vanke and Evergrande in the region "do not flow into the fields of foreigners". In addition, Hong Kong enterprises such as Sun Hung Kai, jiulongcang and new world enjoy the advantages of "favorable timing, favorable location and harmonious people". Although the first half of this year is still lagging behind the southwest, it still occupies the third place with 10 business volume.

However, North China and North China are still in the middle and northwest, while others are normal.

   The first and second tier cities are active and the third and fourth tier cities have potential

First tier cities and developed second tier cities have fast economic development, good business atmosphere, large population and strong consumption power. Although the cost of land acquisition is high, high consumption still makes many developers willing to invest at high prices. Therefore, the commercial activity of these cities is often high.

According to the statistics of urban activity in the first half of this year, in the top 11 lists, the threshold for entering the list is 2. Except Shantou and Hengyang, the remaining 9 cities are first-line and second-line cities. This shows that cities with developed economy, commerce and ideal traffic environment are still the main battlefield for commercial competition.

On the other hand, according to the latest 2020 urban classification index, the total number of third and fourth tier cities is no less than that of first tier and new first tier cities, such as Neijiang, Zigong and Ziyang in Sichuan, Xinyang, Zhoukou, Xinxiang in Henan, Hengyang in Hunan and Laibin in Guangxi.

This shows that the third and fourth tier cities with greater gaps and opportunities in shopping centers have great development potential, which is also one of the important trends in the development of shopping centers.

   50-100000 cubic meters

Among the newly opened commercial projects, the number of new commercial projects with the scale of 50000-100000 cubic meters (including 50000 cubic meters, excluding 100000 cubic meters) is the largest, accounting for 48 percent; the proportion of 20000 to 50000 cubic meters (including 20000 cubic meters, excluding 50000 cubic meters) accounts for about 30 percent; the proportion of 100000 to 150000 cubic meters (including and excluding 150000 cubic meters) is about 17 percent; and the proportion of more than 150000 cubic meters (including 150000 cubic meters) is about 5 percent.

Compared with the same period last year, the number of business opening with the scale of 50000-100000 square meters increased sharply, from 35% to 48%. The proportion of the other three types of volume decreased to varying degrees.

We believe that the one-stop commercial center with a capacity of 50000-100000 square meters is a common mode at present. These projects integrate the basic consumption needs of shopping, eating, drinking and playing, and also introduce experiential formats such as theater, entertainment club, cinema, animal hall, etc., and have enough space for activity marketing, which are often favored by many developers.

At the same time, with the increasing cost of land acquisition and the popularity of community business model, the number of small businesses with a capacity of less than 50000 square meters is gradually increasing, especially in the central areas of first tier cities, new first tier cities and provincial capital cities, with less land and higher land price. Those small and beautiful community neighborhood shopping centers have the advantage of high stickiness due to their proximity to the density of community residents There is no need for high marketing expenses, and it is also widely favored.

   There is an increase in the stock of property for renovation

After the redevelopment of the commercial circle, some of the core assets of the real estate developers are replaced, or some of them are gradually replaced.

The statistical results show that in the first half of the year, there were 8 commercial projects (including the transformation of supermarkets and department stores, renaming and reopening, adjustment and upgrading, etc.), accounting for 13%. Compared with the same period in 2019, the proportion (6% of the stock transformation projects in 2019) increased. In terms of urban distribution, they are still concentrated in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Wuxi, Haikou, Changzhou, Huzhou and other economically developed cities.

In addition, the main demand for upgrading the existing software center is to adapt to the needs of the market, no matter whether it is a single project or a commercial center. Therefore, in the first half of this year, many commercial properties, especially those in developed cities with earlier economic and commercial development, such as Shanghai, are on the way to upgrading.

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