Persistence Analysis Of Passive Rise In PTA Long Short Game

Introduction: After the festival, with the rise of terminal orders and related products, such as cotton staple fiber, PTA disk increased its position significantly for three consecutive days, its position reached the historical high since the listing. During this period, there was no lack of fierce game between over-the-counter funds and on-site funds. To the weekend night Trading, the position began to decrease slightly, during which the price did not change much. The following is a brief analysis of the passive rise from the aspects of inventory and basis Sustainability.

Social inventory pressure is huge: Although the PTA processing range was narrowed in October, it is still maintained at 550-600 yuan / ton under the current overcapacity situation, The processing range is still good. Supported by this, ten month PTA The maintenance plan of the plant is basically within the expected range, domestic PTA The basic load was maintained in the whole month 87% Nearby, the monthly supply is about four hundred and ten About 10000 tons. In terms of downstream polyester demand, although the new polyester plant is expected to be put into operation and some orders for domestic and foreign sales are in a large volume, due to the excessive inventory in the early stage, the pressure of high inventory in the industry is still large, resulting in a small increase in the enthusiasm of weaving production, ten The overall load lifting pressure of polyester is still large, and the expected monthly supply of polyester may be roughly stable in four hundred and seventy-five Around 10000 tons (this is calculated in October 31). business accounting ten Monthly supply and demand, PTA day The output decreased slightly, while the polyester demand in the downstream changed little, PTA9 The moon goes to the library in a small way about four At the end of the month, social inventory decreased slightly to three hundred and fifty point three eight Around 10000 tons. However, the social inventory pressure is still at a high level in recent years, which is difficult to ease in the short term, which restricts the upward space in the current period.

The basis continues to maintain a weak structure get into ten In January, although there was still support for equipment maintenance, the circulation of used goods in the market still dragged down the spot market price. In addition, the passive rise of spot price after the festival and the psychology of some traders' reluctance to sell led to an increase in the pressure on the spot stock. The basis began to weaken again at the end of last week. As of the deadline, the spot basis was at contract 01 discount one hundred and fifty-five element / There are more talks on tons. At present, ten month PTA Although in a small extent to the stock state, but spot pressure shocks the market, plus PTA Social inventory has not yet seen a short-term easing momentum, strong base pressure, and the weak structure will continue to maintain.

Comprehensive consideration: At present, although 01 Large amount of funds involved in the contract, but ten month PTA The supply and demand of the month is basically balanced, and the pressure of second-hand goods and overall inventory is difficult to effectively alleviate in the short-term Recently, Fengming two hundred and twenty 10000 tons / Commissioning of new plant in Out of the material, the spot market supply has continued to loose expectations. In terms of demand, terminal month on month continued to improve, but the impact of foreign events, trade friction and RMB appreciation, the overall recovery is still questionable, and the pressure of polyester load increase is still large. In a comprehensive consideration, the rise of terminals and related products after the National Day festival has boosted the PTA futures market, and the futures price has risen passively, but the supply and demand have not changed significantly, PTA processing range is good and weak basis, which restrict the PTA current upward space and the sustainability of the rise. It is recommended to continue to maintain the point of view that the 01 contract is short selling, which can be operated in a rolling manner, and the rebound does not follow up during the period.