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The Subsidy For Household Photovoltaic Reached 500 Million, Which Exceeded The Expectation, And The Rising Price Of The Industrial Chain Was Afraid To Hit The Enthusiasm Of Downstream

2021/5/22 13:40:00 0

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      After more than two months' consultation, the policy of wind power and photovoltaic power development and construction is officially implemented in 2021.

On May 20, the National Energy Administration officially issued the notice on matters related to the development and construction of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the notice)《 According to the notice, in 2021, wind power and photovoltaic power generation will account for about 11% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, which will be increased year by year to ensure that the proportion of non fossil energy consumption in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025.

      It is worth mentioning that when the final policy strengthens the guidance mechanism of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight, it also pays attention to the establishment of multi guarantee mechanism for grid connection. Among them, the bigger surprise appears in this year's indemnificatory grid connected scale and national financial subsidy budget of household photovoltaic power generation project.

"The official policy has undoubtedly further strengthened market confidence." A senior new energy industry analyst told the 21st century economic reporter that the recent price rise in the industrial chain has been difficult to stop, which has hit the enthusiasm of the downstream in the short term. However, this year's policy ensures the strong demand in 2021 from the terminal goal.

The reporter of 21st century economic report noted that in the first quarter of this year, the domestic photovoltaic industry has shown signs of "not weak in the off-season". However, under the strong downstream demand, the price rise momentum of the overall industrial chain also exceeded the industry expectations.

"Motivation" is full, but "resistance" is not small. Therefore, some institutions think that the second quarter is still an important window period for whether each link of the industrial chain begins to gradually enter into equilibrium.

Two big surprises

According to the "notice" officially issued, in 2021, China's wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects to be connected to the grid are mainly stock projects《 According to the notice, this year's guaranteed grid connected scale will not be less than 90gw, mainly including wind power projects that have been approved before the end of 2020 and are within the validity period of approval, and affordable wind power photovoltaic projects and competitive photovoltaic projects in 2019 and 2020.

"The notice clearly states that the scale of supportable grid connection in 2021 is mainly used to arrange the projects in stock; The existing projects do not need to participate in competitive configuration, and are directly included in the scope of provincial (District, city) supportability grid connected projects. " In an interview with the media, a relevant person from the National Energy Administration said that the stock projects that failed to be connected to the grid during the year would be coordinated by the provincial energy authorities and directly included in the scope of the ensuing annual guaranteed grid connection.

Based on this analysis, Guosheng Securities believes that for the existing projects, it is not necessary to participate in the competitive configuration in this year, and the economy is guaranteed. The stock projects are expected to accelerate the completion of grid connection this year, and the demand of 2021 is strong.

In fact, after the announcement of the scale of this year's indemnificatory grid connected projects, the industry has made further predictions on the new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power this year.

Previously, affected by the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutral targets, and the target that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 25% by 2030, and the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts, the industry's target for new wind power and photovoltaic capacity in the next decade is not less than 72gw per year. According to the notice in 2021, the newly installed capacity of this year exceeds 100gw or is a high probability event.

"If the subsidy of 0.03 yuan per kilowatt hour is considered, the total scale of subsidy index for household projects in 2021 will reach 16.7gw. Superimposed with 90gw of guaranteed grid connection, the total annual wind and solar installed capacity is expected to reach about 110gw. " According to the analysis of Northeast Securities, considering the ratio of wind to wind of 4:6, the annual photovoltaic installed capacity shocks 70gw.

CITIC Securities has set a forecast target of no less than 105gw. It is estimated that the installed capacity of PV and wind power grid connected projects will reach about 50gw and 40gw respectively this year“ Considering about another 15gw of household photovoltaic projects and other market-oriented grid connected projects, it is expected that the total amount of photovoltaic installation guidelines is expected to exceed 65gw, and the scale guidance will exceed market expectations. "

Increasing the amount of subsidy for household use is another big surprise of this year's notice.

During the public consultation period of the notice, the most controversial issue in the industry was how big the "plate" of household project subsidy this year. According to the previous forecast, the total subsidy for domestic household photovoltaic projects will be about 200 million to 300 million yuan in 2021, and the newly installed capacity is expected to exceed 10 GW.

It is worth noting that in April this year, the national development and Reform Commission issued a draft for comments on the new energy on grid pricing policy in 2021. It is proposed that the subsidy standard for the new household distributed photovoltaic power generation to be included in the subsidy scale of the central government in 2021 is 0.03 yuan per kilowatt hour, and the central finance will no longer subsidize the new household distributed photovoltaic projects from 2022“ "Seize the last subsidy year before affordable access to the Internet" has become a major slogan for downstream household photovoltaic enterprises to shout "rush to install".

The official "notice" set the total amount of household subsidies to 500 million yuan this year, greatly improving the industry's expectations. Combined with the electricity price subsidy of 0.03 yuan per kilowatt hour, the new installed capacity of household PV may exceed 16GW this year.

The resistance is still there

Officially issued the "notice" on the policy side to ensure the power of the development of photovoltaic industry this year. However, in the short term, the resistance caused by the price rise of industrial chain is still the biggest variable that leads to the less than expected installed capacity.

On May 19, the latest data released by the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch) showed that the highest quotation of domestic single crystal re feeding had reached 200000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price was 194400 yuan / ton.

"The shortage of silicon material supply is still the essential factor of the price rise. In addition, the proportion of some long orders and bulk orders has been adjusted, and the bulk orders are traded at relatively high prices, forming a high range price." Silicon industry branch analysis said.

The cost pressure brought by the rising price of silicon materials in the upstream is transmitted to the downstream rapidly.

On May 20, China central raised the price of silicon wafers again. G1 (158.75mm) quoted 4.7 yuan / piece, up 10%; The price of M6 (166mm) was 4.85 yuan / piece, up 9.1%; The price of G12 (210mm) silicon chip was 7.77 yuan / chip, up 7.5%. Prior to May 14, Longji shares also raised the price of silicon wafers.

In the battery sector, recently, battery enterprises have continued to raise their prices and compete with downstream suppliers. In the component sector that has attracted much attention, according to the monitoring of industry organization pvinfolink, one price per week has become the norm in the current component market“ This week, the average price of 325-335w / 395-405w single crystal module was raised to 1.65 yuan / W, and that of 355-365 / 430-440w single crystal module remained at 1.70 yuan / W. The average price of large-size M10 and G12 components was adjusted to 1.75 yuan / W, which affected the potential demand of terminals According to pvinfolink analysis, the current component market continues to play the same as the downstream game. On the one hand, the price of battery chip continues to transmit the pressure of upstream price rise, on the other hand, the bargaining attitude of terminal is still not eased.

The reporter of 21st century economic report found that at present, downstream enterprises are stepping up to track the price changes of industrial chain and adjust the project construction cycle. On May 19, Jin Rui, CEO of Jingke technology, said in an interview with the 21st century economic report and other media that the company has a way to regulate the pace of investment and EPC. If the component price is too high, it will have a direct impact on the industrial yield of the power station end.

"This year's overall supply chain situation is not a reasonable commercial level." Liu Xiaojun, vice president and CFO of Jingke technology, believes that the short-term price increase of upstream manufacturers exceeds the reasonable price. Jingke technology is also making prediction and tracking analysis, and making real-time adjustment to the construction period of the power station project.

21st century economic reporter noted that institutions are also afraid of the emergence of extreme prices when they conduct industry analysis“ The second quarter is still an important window period. It is necessary to continuously observe the bidding situation of operators and whether all links start to gradually enter into equilibrium. " Everbright Securities said that under the premise of no price extremes, the global PV installed capacity has turned better quarter by quarter this year.

 

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