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Direct Attack On SNEC: Evolutionary Gene And Internal Friction Risk Of China'S Photovoltaic Industry

2021/6/5 5:21:00 0

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On the eve of the official opening of SNEC [international solar photovoltaic and smart energy (Shanghai) exhibition and Forum], the latest data released by silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association on June 2 showed that the average transaction price of domestic silicon materials exceeded 200000 yuan / ton. Within half a year, the price increase of silicon material has exceeded 140%.

The price level of 200000 yuan / ton is equivalent to that in 2011. This indicates that the unbalanced development of industrial chain is becoming more and more serious. Before the SNEC exhibition held in August last year, the phenomenon of industrial chain price rise has appeared. At that time, the mainstream voice was that in the short term, price hikes would not affect the access to the Internet at parity, but the risk of continuous price rise of upstream raw materials should be prevented.

The risk is not prevented. The uncoordinated development of upstream and downstream has become increasingly prominent this year. Therefore, in this year's SNEC forum, the price rise of the industrial chain has become an unavoidable discussion issue for leading photovoltaic enterprises.

In fact, every year's SNEC exhibition is a time for all photovoltaic enterprises to show their muscles. The release of the latest products and the signing of various cooperation show the continuous evolution of China's photovoltaic industry. But at the same time, the risk problems in the industrial chain are enough to arouse the vigilance of photovoltaic enterprises. When the net price is approaching, the "internal consumption" of the industry is increasing.

New cooperation and new technology in leading enterprises

On June 3, GCL held a signing ceremony on the exhibition stand, with the leading actors including Siemens (China) Co., Ltd., Toshiba (China) Co., Ltd., China Shipbuilding Perry Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd., and State Power Investment Group Beijing Green Hydrogen Technology Development Co., Ltd.

This is the second extension of GCL group's own business after it officially announced to enter the field of mobile energy in March this year. According to the strategic agreement, GCL will launch scientific and technological innovation with the above-mentioned Chinese and foreign partners, focusing on hydrogen production from renewable energy and multi scenario application of green hydrogen in industry, energy and transportation.

GCL is not the first photovoltaic company to enter the hydrogen energy industry. On the same day, Longji Co., Ltd. signed a cooperation agreement with Tongji University at its booth, announcing the joint construction of hydrogen energy laboratory by the University and enterprise.

In March this year, Longji set up a hydrogen energy subsidiary to enter the field of hydrogen energy. The latest development is that the company has set up an electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment base in Wuxi. The 21st century economic reporter learned that Longji expects to achieve mass production of hydrogen production equipment in the fourth quarter of this year, with the first phase reaching 500MW. In 2022, the production capacity of hydrogen production equipment in the base will reach 1.5gw. In 2025, the planned capacity of Longji hydrogen production equipment will be 5GW to 10GW.

Hydrogen production from green electricity has become a hot spot pursued by leading enterprises. At the same time, in this SNEC exhibition, around the next generation of photovoltaic cell technology display, is also a hundred flowers competition.

21st century economic reporter noted that Tongwei Co., Ltd. has demonstrated a laminated tile double glass hjt module with a power of 705W. In addition, Seville LDK and Trina Solar also demonstrated their latest product achievements in the field of hjt. Among them, Trina Solar launched a hjt module with a power of 710w and a conversion efficiency of 22.87%.

Longji shares, which had been showing continuous breakthroughs in the research and development of n-type TOPCON, made a "surprise" to the outside world before the opening of this SNEC exhibition. On June 1, the company announced three world battery efficiency records, including hjt technology. Although Longji is focusing on a new dual-sided module based on TOPCON technology at this exhibition, it is an indisputable fact that this leading enterprise has diversified reserves in the next generation photovoltaic cell technology path.

For the whole photovoltaic industry in China, the emergence of new technologies and new products is the march of industrial evolution.

Does photovoltaic industry need "cooling down"?

"In fact, when we made this year's forecast last year, the component cost might be about 1.5 yuan / W, but how much is it now? At present, 1.75 yuan / W is not enough. " Sun Jie, vice president of vision intelligence and CEO of total vision energy service company, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter that the overall cost has returned to the level of two or even three years ago, which is equivalent to retrogression. As a downstream, it will definitely not accept the endless price increase.

The phenomenon of price rise in photovoltaic industry chain has evolved into a problem of supply chain security, which continues to ferment. From last year's shortage of photovoltaic glass, which led to a rapid rise in price, to this year's shortage of silicon material, the price ceiling has been raised continuously. These phenomena have become the disharmonious notes of the whole photovoltaic industry when it comes to the low-cost access to the Internet.

"I didn't bring any manuscripts today. I didn't wear a suit or tie. I just wanted to cool down and lower our temperature." In his speech at the opening ceremony of SNEC, chairman Cao Renxian said that at present, there is a game between supply and demand in the industrial chain, and there are many abnormal phenomena.

The reporter of 21st century economic report has noticed that the leading photovoltaic enterprises do not have a consensus on the rising price of the industrial chain at present. The commercial behavior caused by market supply and demand will see a price inflection point next year. In an interview with the 21st century economic report and other media, Liu Hanyuan, chairman of the board of directors of Tongwei group, believed that the price rise of silicon materials should be treated dialectically. "In the past decade, the investment cost, sunk cost and investment income of polysilicon industry are relatively limited. Therefore, there is a gap between supply and demand at this time point, but there are new capital investment With the emergence of a new scale, the cost of the next round will be lower and the scale will be larger. "

However, there are many voices to avoid the unbalanced development of the industrial chain as far as possible. Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji shares, said, "the industrial people themselves do have the responsibility. It is clear that this link has been unbalanced. We are still investing, and then we have no rice to go to the pot. Finally, we have to wait passively."

 

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