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China'S Textile And Garment Export Prospects Are Cautious And Optimistic In April 2021

2021/6/9 7:15:00 0

TextileClothingExportProspect

    The overall trend of China's textile and clothing exports in April was good, and the exports in the second quarter and the second half of the year were cautiously optimistic. As the first month of the second quarter, textile and clothing exports in April compared with the same period last year, compared with the same period in 2019, and month on month growth, and the export of traditional bulk commodities showed an increasing trend.
 
Just looking at the data, as the export peak was formed from May to September last year, the export volume in a single month reached or approached 30 billion US dollars. It is preliminarily predicted that in the second quarter and the second half of this year, affected by the high base number last year and the rapid decline in the export of epidemic prevention materials this year, under the statistical situation of epidemic prevention materials, the export will certainly fall down year on year. There is still room for growth in exports, excluding epidemic prevention materials.
 
Combined with the situation of enterprises receiving orders, the recent centralized survey of key export provinces and cities by China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce shows that enterprises generally reflect that the orders are relatively sufficient at present. However, due to the rise of raw materials, logistics and labor costs, exchange rate fluctuations and other multiple factors, the production cost has risen greatly and the profit space has been further squeezed. In addition, the current international business environment is changeable, and uncertain events occur frequently. Export enterprises generally hold a cautious attitude towards the export situation in the second half of the year.
 
The surge of sea freight is the biggest challenge for export enterprises. Sea freight soaring has become a difficult problem for all foreign trade enterprises, and it is the biggest difficulty and blocking point in the export link of enterprises. The epidemic situation and the Suez Canal blockage led to the cancellation or postponement of the shipping schedule, and the serious loss of seafarers, resulting in the overstocking of cargo and the difficulty in obtaining one container. In addition, the rampant domestic cattle, further driving freight soaring. At present, a container has risen to more than 10000 US dollars, an average increase of 3-4 times over the normal year. If you want to share this part of the cost with customers, it will lead to the decline of customers' profits and affect their purchasing enthusiasm.
 
RMB against the US dollar reached a new high, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuation objectively exists. On May 27, onshore RMB / USD rose above 6.38, while offshore RMB / USD once exceeded 6.37, both reaching new highs since May 2018. Safe said that the risk of RMB exchange rate fluctuations exists objectively, and enterprises need to adapt to changes in the foreign exchange market environment. Generally speaking, the medium and long-term appreciation trend of RMB against the US dollar is basically determined, and the fluctuation during the period will become normal. Foreign trade enterprises should pay close attention to the change of exchange rate, adjust the strategy in time and reduce the exchange rate risk.
 
Universal vaccination in developed countries may support export growth. As of May 24, according to our world in data statistics of Oxford University, more than 1.7 billion doses of new coronavirus vaccine have been reported worldwide, with an inoculation rate of 9.96%. The vaccination rate in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Germany and other countries has reached or exceeded 40%. With the popularization of vaccination, the economic activities in China's textile and garment key markets are gradually recovering, and the consumer's shopping demand and the rate of entering stores are picking up, which will form a strong support for export. It is expected that the distribution of Global trade, industrial chain and supply chain will gradually return to the original track after the vaccination rate of developed countries reaches the critical value of group immunity.
 
From January to April 2021, China's textile and clothing trade volume reached 99.55 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 31.4%. Among them, export reached 90.29 billion US dollars, an increase of 32.9%, 19.3% compared with the same period in 2019; Imports were $9.26 billion, up 18.2%, 16.6% over the same period in 2019, and the cumulative trade surplus was $81.04 billion, up 34.8% and 19.6% compared with the same period in 2019. In April, the trade volume of textiles and clothing reached US $26.17 billion, up 12% year-on-year, 21.4% over the same period in 2019, and 18.5% month on month. Among them, the export was 23.77 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.8%, 22.3% compared with the same period in 2019, and a month on month growth of 22.8%; Imports reached US $2.4 billion, an increase of 40.3%, an increase of 13.2% over the same period in 2019, and a decrease of 12.1% on a month on month basis. The trade surplus of the month was US $21.37 billion, an increase of 7.2%, an increase of 23.5% over the same period in 2019, and a 28.6% month on month increase.
 
Textile and clothing exports grow rapidly
 
In April, the textile and clothing exports maintained a good growth trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% in the same month, but mainly affected by the decline in the export of epidemic prevention materials. Yarn fabrics and household textiles of bulk commodities increased year-on-year and compared with the same period in 2019. After removing the factor of epidemic prevention materials (mainly medical masks), textiles increased by 80.6% year-on-year, Compared with the same period in 2019, it increased by 21.1%. Clothing export increased by 64.9% year-on-year and 19.2% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the clothing export of bulk commodities grew rapidly. After removing the factor of epidemic prevention materials (mainly protective clothing), the clothing export in that month increased by 83.7% year-on-year and 17.5% compared with the same period in 2019.
 
From the perspective of month on month, textile and clothing in April 2021 increased by 18.5% compared with March, in which textile increased by 25.3% and clothing increased by 20.3%.
 
Head Market stickiness increases
 
Due to the rapid increase in the demand for finished and semi-finished products of epidemic prevention materials in various countries, and the return of orders caused by the epidemic situation in some competitive countries (regions), the traditional key textile and garment markets such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan have re expanded their procurement from the Chinese market, thus further enhancing the status of these countries and regions in China's export market. From January to April, according to the market situation of China's top ten textile and garment export countries, the proportion of the United States, Japan, Vietnam, Germany and other eight countries increased, the Philippines was basically flat, only Russia decreased more.
 
Under the epidemic situation, the importance of the US and EU markets with large market capacity and high price has been further highlighted. From January to April, the two places together accounted for 31.8% of China's export market share, 0.4% higher than that in 2019 before the epidemic, and China's exports of bulk commodities showed a trend of growth or recovery.
 
From January to April, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States reached US $15.57 billion, up 55.3% year-on-year and 29% higher than the same period in 2019. Among them, the growth rate of key commodities of woven clothing was 60%, which was reduced to 1.2% compared with that in 2019, and gradually returned to the level before the epidemic.
 
From January to April, China's market to the EU recovered rapidly, and the export of bulk commodities has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. From January to April, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU reached 13.17 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.9% over the same period of the same period in 2019, with an increase of 26.9%. Among them, the key commodities of knitted and woven clothing increased by 38.9%, 15.6% compared with that in 2019.
 
From January to April, China's textile and clothing exports to Japan reached 6.86 billion US dollars, up 5.2% year-on-year and 11.4% higher than the same period in 2019. Among them, the growth rate of key commodities of knitwear clothing was 8.4%, which was 2.1% lower than that in 2019.
 
From January to April, China's textile and clothing exports to ASEAN reached 14.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 44.6% year-on-year and 26% higher than that of the same period in 2019. Among them, yarn fabrics of key commodities increased by 36.8%, 6.6% compared with that in 2019.
 
With the expansion of vaccination coverage, the epidemic situation in the United States and Europe gradually eased, and the consumer market showed a rising trend. As the epidemic situation in India and Southeast Asia is still repeated, the market share of our products in the United States and Europe is in a stable or small recovery state.
 
From January to March, the United States imported US $32.06 billion of global textiles and clothing, an increase of 21.6%, 8% over the same period in 2019, of which imports from China increased by 70.9% and 9.4% respectively. The share of Chinese products in the United States accounted for 31.7%, of which textiles accounted for 38% and clothing accounted for 29.4%, both higher than the same period in 2020 and the same period in 2019.
 
From January to February, imports from the 27 EU countries increased by 2.5%, of which imports from China increased by 20.4%, 9.8% compared with the same period in 2019. Chinese products account for 36.3% of the EU's products, of which textiles and clothing account for 48.4% and 30.9% respectively, both higher than the same period last year and 2019.
 
From January to March, China's products accounted for 54.8% of Japan's products, of which textiles and clothing accounted for 58.1% and 53.7% respectively. The proportion of textiles was significantly higher than that of the same period last year and 2019, and clothing was lower than that of the same period in 2019.
 
Export of epidemic prevention materials fell rapidly
 
From January to April, textile and clothing exports increased by 18% and 51.5% respectively, and increased by 21.1% and 17.5% compared with the same period in 2019. Excluding the epidemic prevention materials, the textile and clothing export growth in the first four months reached double-digit: if medical masks were not included, the textile export was 42.7% year-on-year and 11.9% compared with the same period in 2019; If protective clothing is not taken into account, clothing exports will reach 52.7% and 15.1% respectively compared with the same period in 2019.
 
In April, the export of epidemic prevention materials fell sharply, and the export volume of medical masks and protective clothing decreased by 89.2% and 63.1% respectively, resulting in a decrease of nearly 50% in the cumulative export of medical masks and a decrease in the cumulative growth rate of protective clothing to 24% from January to April.
 
Export growth of key provinces and cities in two years
 
From January to April, the export of most provinces and cities (districts) in China maintained double growth compared with the same period of last year and the same period of 2019. Among them, the export of the top five export provinces, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian, all increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and all increased by more than 10% compared with the same period in 2019. The overall performance of the central region was the most prominent, with exports recovering the fastest, with a year-on-year growth of 37.6% and an increase of 40% compared with the same period in 2019.
 
From a single month perspective, under the effect of a high base, the number of regions with a year-on-year decline in exports began to increase in April, and Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and other places, which were once high last year, fell back.
 
Strong performance of clothing imports
 
In April, the import of textiles and clothing maintained a year-on-year growth and a year-on-year growth compared with the same period in 2019, which was mainly driven by clothing import. The clothing import in that month increased by 64.6% year-on-year and 48.8% compared with the same period in 2019. Textile imports increased by 29% year-on-year, but decreased by 0.9% compared with the same period in 2019, which was mainly caused by the decline in the imports of fabrics and manufactured goods, with a decrease rate of 29.3% and 6.7% respectively. The yarn still maintained a rapid growth rate of 17%.
 
From January to April, the cumulative import of textiles decreased by 0.2% year-on-year. Affected by the fall of import of epidemic prevention materials, the textile finished products decreased by 39%, and yarn and fabric increased by 38% and 2.6% respectively.
 
Import cotton prices continue to rise
 
In April, although the import volume of cotton fell slightly compared with the previous period, it still maintained a rapid growth, with 230000 tons of imports in the same month, an increase of 84.5% year-on-year. In the same month, Indian cotton surpassed American cotton to become the largest source of cotton import in China. The import from India soared by 367%, and the import of American cotton dropped by 8.1%. The import price of cotton rose significantly, reaching a new high since the outbreak of the epidemic, reaching 1910 US dollars / ton.
 
In the first four months, cotton imports grew rapidly as a whole, with a total import of 1.2 million tons from the world, a year-on-year increase of 63%. The United States, Brazil, India, Australia, and the United States were the top five import source countries.
 
According to the analysis of China Cotton Association, in April, textile market sales were smooth, enterprise orders were sufficient, overall operating rate was high, raw material inventory was further consumed, and commercial inventory continued to decline. Affected by India's epidemic situation and rising commodity prices and other factors, domestic cotton prices rose at the end of the month and the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed. According to the survey of China Cotton Association, in 2021, the cotton planting area in China decreased year on year, and the sowing progress has exceeded 90%, faster than the same period last year. At the end of the month, in order to ensure the cotton demand of textile enterprises, the state issued a quota of 700000 tons of cotton import sliding tax, all of which were non-state-owned trade quotas. China Cotton Association predicts that the cotton consumption in 2020 / 2021 will be 8.1 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; The import volume was 2.35 million tons, up 46.9% year on year; The output was 5.92 million tons, which was flat and slightly increased year on year.
 
In April, domestic cotton prices rose due to factors such as the outbreak of the epidemic in India, the strengthening of commodity market prices, and the disastrous weather in some parts of Xinjiang. On April 30, China's cotton price index (ccindex 3128b) was 15872 yuan / ton, an increase of 626 yuan compared with March 31 and a year-on-year increase of 4371 yuan; The average monthly price was 15566 yuan / ton, a decrease of 382 yuan on a month on month basis, and a year-on-year increase of 4170 yuan. The international cotton price rose in general and fell back at the end of the month. China's import cotton price index FC index m was 92.03 cents / pound, down 1.82 cents month on month, up 26.85 cents year-on-year. The price on April 30 was 94.43 cents / pound, up 5.72 cents compared with March 31. The 1% tariff was reduced to 15092 yuan / ton, which was lower than 780 yuan of domestic spot goods in the same period. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was reduced by 354 yuan compared with the end of last month.
 
 
 
 
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