Textile Enterprises Generally Respond To The Decline Of Cotton Downstream Consumption That Orders Are Few And Scattered

 

Domestic textile and clothing orders are still weak. After the release of previous orders, the follow-up is insufficient; Domestic cotton commercial inventory remains at a historical high. At present, the load of pure cotton yarn mill and all cotton grey cloth is better than that of the previous month. The load in March exceeded 60%, significantly higher than the range of 55% - 58% last year; However, with the weakening of orders, it is expected that the load will decline from April to June on a month on month basis. After short-term replenishment, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises has risen significantly month on month, which has exceeded the level of the same period last year. From the sample data, the inventory has rebounded from 200000 tons to 320000 tons. However, the terminal inventory is still low, and the grey fabric inventory has declined significantly on a month on month basis, which means that the downstream is not willing to make up.

In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of pure cotton mills reached 61.4%, and that of all cotton grey fabrics reached 61.7%. Although it was not higher than the level in the same period of 2021, it was also at the upper edge of the range, which was significantly higher than the level in the same period of last year. In terms of orders, the number of new orders for weaving is 40 days, which is higher than the level of the same period of the previous three years, lower than the level of the same period of 2019, and the number of orders coming back after the year is less than 30 days. With the arrival of the peak season at the textile end and the slow recovery of domestic demand, the number of new orders for weaving in the near future has increased month on month. In terms of finished product inventory, the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises is 9.6 days, and the cotton grey fabric inventory is 24.7 days, both at the lower edge of the range. The textile end finished products are in good stock, although not as good as the same period in 2021, but the current inventory pressure is not big, which is better than last year and the fourth quarter on a year-on-year and month on month basis. In terms of raw material inventory, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 32.6 days, and the cotton yarn inventory of textile mills was 13.4 days, increasing year on year and quarter on quarter. Based on the increase of orders, the removal of finished products from the warehouse, the improvement of the startup rate, and the recovery of enterprise confidence, the textile end increased its willingness to actively increase raw material inventory, the finished product inventory was not high, and the overall operation was good.

From the perspective of cotton downstream consumption, textile enterprises generally respond that orders are few and scattered. Spinning enterprises have sufficient raw material inventory, with an average inventory of more than 30 days, while the inventory of finished cotton yarn is 9.6 days; The cotton yarn inventory of grey cloth factory was 13.4 days, the highest level in 8 months; The imported yarn remained at a low level of 5.7 days due to the price inversion at home and abroad.

In terms of start-up, due to the good spinning profit, the operating rate of the textile factory remained at 61.4%, which was the same as the average operating rate in the past three years; The operating rate of all cotton grey cloth factory was 61.7%, which basically recovered to the average level in the past three years. However, the operating rate of textile industry in some Southeast Asian countries is insufficient. For example, the operating rate of Indian spinning mills is 73%, and that of Vietnamese spinning mills is 63%, both at the lowest level in the same period of the previous two years.

At present, the production and marketing situation of textile enterprises is fair, and the wait-and-see mood is gradually strong. Although the domestic demand has improved, the external demand has decreased significantly, and textile enterprises tend to be cautious in purchasing. At present, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises has increased compared with the previous low level. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials when they need them, and they are not willing to stock up. According to the data of China Cotton Network, the production and sales rate of yarn and cloth of textile enterprises remained high in February and March, with a significant increase in the average level of the last three years. The operating rate of textile enterprises was about 80%, up slightly year on year. There is a certain gap between the order quantity and the expectation. The current order quantity is about the middle of April. There are few foreign trade orders, long orders and large orders. The demand peak season performance of "gold, three silver and four silver" is not as expected at present.