Industrial Cluster: Survey And Analysis Of Cotton Production In Monthly Meteorological Reports

In September 2024, 61 meteorological stations in 201 cotton producing counties of 13 cotton producing provinces (regions) will be investigated through sampling by relevant departments to learn the data:

By the end of September, most of the cotton in the cotton region was in the period of boll cracking and boll opening, and some of the cotton in Xinjiang had stopped growing. In June, the average temperature in cotton regions across the country was 24.1 ℃, 0.8 ℃ and 2.3 ℃ higher than that of the previous year and the same period of the year; The average sunshine hours were 191.9 hours, 13.3 hours more than the same period of the previous year, and 5.7 hours less than the same period of the previous year; The average precipitation is 58 mm, 3.6 mm less than that of the same period last year, and 2.7 mm more than that of the same period of the year. During the month, Xinjiang cotton region has more cooling and precipitation, wind and hail weather, which is unfavorable for cotton boll cracking and boll opening; Most of the cotton areas in the Yellow River basin have good light and temperature conditions, which are conducive to cotton boll picking. Strong wind and rain in some areas of Shandong and Henan have led to waterlogging in cotton fields; The cotton area in the Yangtze River basin has sunny weather, which is conducive to cotton boll opening, picking and drying. The strong rainfall and convection brought by the typhoon in the middle of the year led to cotton lodging in Jiangsu and Anhui.

By the end of September, the comprehensive climate suitability index of cotton regions in China is appropriate. Compared with 2023, the average yield of cotton in China will increase.

1、 Growth and development process of cotton

By the end of September, most of the cotton in each cotton region was in the period of boll cracking and boll opening, and some of the cotton in Xinjiang had stopped growing. The cotton development period in most cotton regions was close to the normal year or 3-29 days earlier.

2、 Analysis of climatic suitability of cotton

1. In Xinjiang cotton region, there are many cooling, precipitation, wind and hail weather, which is unfavorable for cotton boll cracking and boll opening

The monthly average temperature in the northwest inland cotton region was 19.7 ℃, 1.0 ℃ lower than the same period of the previous year, and 0.6 ℃ higher than the same period of the previous year; The monthly sunshine hours are 232.5 hours, 27.6 hours and 34.3 hours less than the same period of the previous year and the regular year respectively; The monthly precipitation is 14.3 mm, 7.3 mm and 6.6 mm more than that of the previous year and the same period of the year. During the month, most cotton regions in Xinjiang have frequent weather processes of temperature drop, precipitation and strong wind, and the meteorological conditions have adverse effects on cotton boll cracking and boll opening, as well as the spraying of machine picked cotton defoliant. From September 2 to 3, Aksu City was hit by hail, and 566.7 hectares of cotton were hit; Luntai County was affected by wind and hail, precipitation weather, 348.9 hectares of cotton disaster, 66.7 hectares of disaster area; Kuqa suffered thunderstorms and gales, and 23.3 hectares of cotton were affected. According to the monitoring data of cotton autumn peaches in Xinjiang, the average number of autumn peaches per plant in northern Xinjiang cotton region is 0.56, 0.12 fewer than last year; The number of cotton regions in southern Xinjiang was 0.94, 0.47 less than last year.

The comprehensive climate suitability index is appropriate when cotton is sown in the northwest inland cotton region until the end of September. Compared with 2023, the average yield of cotton in the northwest inland region will increase.

2. Most of the cotton areas in the Yellow River basin have good light and temperature conditions, which are conducive to cotton boll picking. Strong wind and rain in some areas of Shandong and Henan have led to waterlogging in cotton fields

The monthly average temperature of cotton growing areas in the Yellow River basin is 23.6 ℃, 0.4 ℃ and 2.2 ℃ higher than that of the previous year and the same period of the year; The monthly sunshine hours are 166.5 hours, 4 hours and 20 hours less than that of the previous year and the same period of the year; The monthly precipitation is 63.5mm, 4.5mm less than the same period of the previous year and 1.2mm more than the same period of the previous year. During the month, most of the cotton areas in the Yellow River basin have sufficient heat and suitable light. The light and heat conditions are generally conducive to cotton boll opening. However, due to the impact of typhoon "Beibijia" on 17-19, strong wind and rain weather occurred in southwest Shandong and southeast Henan, and waterlogging disaster occurred in some cotton fields, which was not conducive to the normal opening and picking of cotton.

The comprehensive climate suitability index is appropriate when cotton is sown to the end of September in the cotton region of the Yellow River basin. Compared with 2023, the average unit yield of cotton in the Yellow River basin tends to be a normal year.

3. There are many sunny days in the cotton area of the Yangtze River basin, which is conducive to cotton boll opening, picking and drying. The heavy rainfall and strong convection brought by the typhoon in the middle of the year led to cotton lodging in parts of Jiangsu and Anhui

The monthly average temperature in the cotton area of the Yangtze River basin was 27.5 ℃, 2.4 ℃ and 3.6 ℃ higher than that of the previous year and the same period of the year; The monthly sunshine hours were 189.8 hours, 54.7 hours and 25.3 hours more than that of the previous year and the same period of the year; The monthly precipitation is 80.4mm, 9.6 mm less than that of the same period of the previous year, and 1.5 mm more than that of the same period of the previous year. The cotton areas in the Yangtze River basin have sunny weather in most months, which is favorable for cotton boll opening and picking and drying. However, in the middle of the month, affected by the typhoon "Beibijia", some cotton areas in Jiangsu and Anhui experienced heavy rainfall, accompanied by local strong convection weather, resulting in short-term waterlogging in some fields and local cotton lodging.

The comprehensive climate suitability index is relatively suitable when cotton is sown to the end of September in the cotton region of the Yangtze River basin. Compared with 2023, the average per unit area yield of cotton in the Yangtze River basin tends to be a normal year.

3、 Climate Outlook and Suggestions for Cotton Region in October

It is expected that in October, the temperature in most parts of the cotton area will be normal or high, and the precipitation will be close to the normal year to less, so the meteorological conditions will be favorable for cotton boll opening and picking and drying; The precipitation of cotton areas in the Yangtze River basin is 2-50% less than that in the same period of the year, and drought may occur in some cotton areas.

It is suggested that all cotton regions should do a good job in agricultural machinery allocation, seize the sunny weather, and harvest cotton in a timely manner; The cotton regions in the Yangtze River basin should do a good job in drought resistance and promote the increase of boll weight.