In The First Half Of The Year, Crude Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol And Polyester Were "Trapped".

In the twinkling of an eye, it has entered the midsummer of July.

In the first half of the year, the entire industrial chain was enveloped in the haze of the epidemic. The outbreak of the new crown disease caused a sharp decline in global demand, and the three carriages of exports, consumption and investment were seriously hampered. Whether in the upstream or downstream of the industry chain, the market in the first half of the year is in a downward trend, and it is difficult to have a positive boost to stimulate the rally.

The epidemic has led to a slump in terminal demand and a heavy blow to the textile industry chain. At the same time, crude oil slump in the first half of the year was also bad. In April 21st, New York WTI crude oil May contract settlement price fell to a negative value of -37.63 dollars per barrel, extremely low oil prices to Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major oil producing countries brought heavy pressure, and urged all parties to reach a new round of historic biggest production reduction agreement. In May, OPEC+ officially launched a reduction in production. In June, OPEC and non OPEC oil producers agreed to extend the average daily production of 9 million 700 thousand barrels of crude oil to the end of July. Production cuts stimulate oil prices to rise, but demand is weak and crude oil stocks are almost saturated. It is difficult to change the international oil price. It is difficult to maintain a stable US $40 mark.

At the end of 29, New York crude oil futures rose 1.21 dollars in August, tied 39.70 yuan / barrel, Brent futures rose 0.69 dollars in August, 41.71 yuan / barrel, China SC crude oil futures 2008 fell 11.3 to 287.3 yuan / barrel.

Crude oil and demand side are hard to boost, polyester industry chain suffered a "midlife crisis" in the first half of the year. So, let's review the situation of polyester raw materials PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filament in the first half of this year.

Since the second half of last year, the PTA has been "going to the end" because of the serious contradiction between supply and demand. This year, due to the impact of the epidemic and the bad oil, the PTA market is weakening. In 1-3 months, during the Spring Festival, PTA was subject to high storage and Spring Festival holidays. The load went down. But after April, the PTA load continued to rise and fluctuated.

In the form of the basic side, the PTA load still did not rise and fall. As of June 26th, the PTA load increased to about 81.1%. At the same time, there is no sign of weakness at the supply side. Several sets of plant maintenance have been postponed, including the Hon BANG 2 million 200 thousand ton plant full load, the Yangzi Petrochemical 350 thousand ton plant full load, the Shanghai Petrochemical 400 thousand ton plant full load, and Yisheng Ningbo 2 million 200 thousand tons plant is expected to be overhauled for 2-3 days in July.

In addition, there are still PTA new installations put into operation: on the 28 day, a new PTA plant in Northeast China was formally put into operation. At the beginning, half of the production lines were initially opened, involving 1 million 250 thousand production capacity. It is expected to produce qualified products in nearly two days. The other half of the production line is scheduled to open in July; Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 500 thousand tons PTA plant is put into operation, and 6 production lines are opened in 7 and 7 months. The further expansion of the supply side is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the PTA market.

Load and supply are rising, and demand is difficult to raise, resulting in PTA inventory rising. After the market resumed in March, PTA actually went to a wave of inventory, but the demand for polyester was not keeping up with the stock accumulation. On the 26 day, PTA social inventory rose to 2 million 250 thousand tons, close to the inventory level during the Spring Festival holiday.

Feedback to the price side is even more miserable. In the first half of the year, the price of PTA's internal market continued to decline, even at a time close to 3000 yuan / ton low. Driven by fluctuations in crude oil prices, PTA prices have been warmer, but as of the end of June, still around 3500 yuan / ton hovering. With the increase of supply and the difficulty of going to the Treasury, PTA will be converted from storehouse to storehouse in July, and the price will linger at the bottom in the short term.  

In the first half of this year, the market of ethylene glycol was running weak. The price declines were better than those of PTA, but in general, prices were also at a low level. Even in April, they fell below 3000 yuan / ton. The latter period has been in the state of fluctuation, but the price increase is not large. As of 29 days, the price of ethylene glycol is about 3475 yuan / ton.

In addition to the weakening of downstream demand, the price of ethylene glycol is due to its height inventory status. In the first half of this year, the trend of ethylene glycol load has been declining. By the end of the month, the ethylene glycol comprehensive utilization rate has been around 60%, but the stock has kept rising, and the new high in the new year is constantly being brushed up. The shipments were blocked and the congestion occurred in the East China port ports, resulting in the concentration of ethylene glycol in the latter part of the port. The inventory of ethylene glycol increased rapidly. At the end of the month, the main port inventory of ethylene glycol reached a new high of --140 million tons.

It can be seen that in the first half of this year, glycol has been in a state of accumulation. In fact, ethylene prices of ethylene glycol are relatively strong in the first half of the year, which can support their prices to a certain extent, but it is still difficult to meet the pressure of demand dilution and its own supply side.

In July, a number of ethylene glycol units will be restarted, restart capacity is far greater than overhaul loss capacity, in addition, Xinjiang Tianye in July, there are still new installations plan, glycol supply side pressure increased again, it is expected that the market will be the main regional finishing.

Polyester filament

High inventory, low demand, serious shrinkage

As the final link of polyester industry chain, the price of polyester filament has fallen down in recent years due to the collapse of upstream cost end of polyester filament and insufficient support of downstream weaving. In particular, on the eve of Qingming in April, due to the outbreak of the epidemic, it was difficult to make orders for foreign trade, especially in the field of foreign trade, which was almost closed. Weaving factories were hard to make production and marketing, production enthusiasm was not high, the rate of start-up dropped, the demand for polyester filament decreased, and polyester prices dropped to the lowest level in half a year.

During the May 1 period, the price of polyester was stimulated by the sharp rise of crude oil, but it was constrained by the shortage of orders for weaving orders, and the production and sale of hundreds of millions of markets were difficult to sustain, and polyester prices fell again. In June, the weaving market was short of bright spots, and the products were woven. The spring spun and polyester taffet outlet had already been sold in the early stage. According to a sample of enterprises monitored by China's silk net, the inventory of grey fabric in weaving enterprises in Shengze has risen to about 44 days, higher than the same period in previous years.

No demand, but polyester plant operating rate is still maintained at a high level of about 91%, resulting in polyester light production, but it can not sell. According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 24-35 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks to 6-12 days, FDY stocks to 17-24 days, and DTY stocks to 25-36 days. Although it has declined during the Spring Festival, it has entered the storehouse cycle compared with the recent period.

The price is the most direct feedback of demand and inventory. As of 30 days, the price of polyester filament FDY products is 5850 yuan / ton, POY products are 5250 yuan / ton, and the price of DTY products is 6900 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year, they are 23.03%, 26.06% and 22.03% respectively.

From the above data, we can see that due to the impact of the epidemic and the weakness of its own fundamentals, whether crude oil or polyester raw materials and polyester filament are in the "hot water" in the first half of the year, there is no demand to support, the price is difficult to pull up, and the inventory is difficult to remove. At present, it has entered the traditional off-season. The market price of every link in the industrial chain is still relatively difficult, but it can not exclude the stimulation of good news, and the industrial chain will have the chance to turn over.