The Printing And Dyeing Factory Gives Out The Sound Of Warming Up. The Raw Material Supplier Takes Advantage Of The Wind To Sell Raw Materials, While The Weaving Factory Looks At The Empty Inventory With Sadness

According to the current situation, the average number of workers in dyeing factories increased from 65% in the early stage to the end of this year.

At the same time, in recent years, polyester manufacturers have also begun to test the price of polyester filament. The prices of various products have increased to varying degrees compared with last week, especially for FDY and POY products. It's near the end of the century, and the production of polyester is approaching.

Why is this rebound phenomenon due to the resonance between upstream and downstream?

1. PTA, ethylene glycol prices go up, polyester fiber get cost support

In recent years, the US shale oil industry bankruptcy wave has partially offset the market's worries about oversupply. The oil market is supported by favorable factors, and it is expected that the international crude oil price will still have an upward trend in the short term. Under the strength of crude oil, the overall cost driving force of petrochemical industry continues to be strong. Affected by this, both PTA and ethylene glycol prices have rebounded, especially for ethylene glycol. Due to the recent slowdown in the growth rate of goods arriving at the port, although the shipment is average, the slow growth of inventory at the main port has supported the higher price of ethylene glycol. Although the price of PTA rose slowly, it was better than that in the early stage. Therefore, the end cost price went up and stabilized, which provided an effective support for the price of polyester filament. At the same time, the downstream release of the sound of the production and marketing of the market has played a very good cargo effect.

2. The orders of autumn and winter clothing fabrics enter the "window period"

It is understood that in the second half of the year, transactions of clothing fabrics in spring and summer continued to shrink, and orders mainly made of imitation silk began to weaken, while the proofing, samples and orders of autumn and winter clothing fabrics in the domestic trade market began to expand gradually. Therefore, the increase of orders for autumn and winter fabrics of dyeing factories was obvious, especially for elastic fabrics, and the market transaction atmosphere was more prominent.

Is the textile market rebounding in the off-season?

1. The "fault" between weaving and printing and dyeing: grey fabric inventory still has high risk

From the perspective of downstream trade chain, is the improvement of the downstream industry a good signal? In fact, it is not. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the order placing mode of terminal traders has changed this year. In the past, most orders were "large quantity and good price", but this year, the mode of "small batch and multi batch" was changed. "At present, the dyeing factory work is getting better, but the transaction is relatively miscellaneous. Now the single volume of 20000-30000 yuan in the factory is already a large order." Said a salesman in a dyeing factory. Therefore, the current market has not broken out in a large area, and dyeing factories are only partially covered with piles and some links are waiting in line. According to the survey, at present, the orders on hand of traders have not improved greatly, and many traders even began to have holidays and take turns in July.

Looking at the whole market, whether it is weaving or trading, holiday operation is more and more frequent. For textile boss, although there are orders from downstream customers, in the face of overcapacity market, these limited orders can not fill the "stomach" of each trading company. Therefore, the overall market situation is relatively mild, and there is no large-scale recovery. As a result, the orders of a small number of trading companies are improving, while most enterprises are still "short of orders" ”Status. Now belongs to the traditional off-season, even if the domestic market suddenly strength, ushered in a small wave of market, but conduction to the end of weaving is still relatively weak. At present, the overcapacity of grey fabric is obvious, and many weaving factories have been on the alert for about two months. It is difficult to de stock the market. Therefore, many weaving factories still start to implement the plan of high temperature holiday and load reduction. In addition, there are still many uncertain factors in the recovery of foreign trade market, especially the rising trade friction between China and the United States, which has led to some countries' resistance to Chinese products. Therefore, it is still uncertain what kind of state the foreign trade market will recover in September and October this year.

2. The starting rate of polyester is high, but the contradiction is gradually accumulated

According to polyester manufacturers, the purchase of polyester products has been reduced to a high level before 2020, and the purchase of polyester products has been reduced to a higher level than that of polyester products in the downstream market. After that, with the signs of improvement in the overseas epidemic situation, and polyester prices at a historical low, downstream sentiment began to improve. After May, the number of trial orders increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was high. In the second half of the year, the overseas epidemic situation is still continuing, and the high inventory of goods and finished products makes the downstream purchasing sentiment subside. After July, the terminal will also enter the off-season, with the accumulation of polyester end increasing and the inventory pressure increasing. Polyester will continue to narrow profits in the future.

At present, the impact of the epidemic situation in Europe has gradually subsided, the market is returning to normal, and export orders will gradually warm up. However, the market is worried about the extent to which orders can be recovered: on the one hand, whether the overseas epidemic situation is repeated; on the other hand, the income of residents after the impact of the epidemic is sharply reduced, and the consumption of textile and clothing is more cautious. At the same time, the number of overseas anti-dumping investigations on China's filament, yarn and other commodities increased, making it difficult for overseas orders to return to the pre epidemic level. Therefore, in the short term, the polyester sector is relatively healthy, polyester cash flow recovery, inventory decline, and startup rate remains high. However, if the sustainability of terminal demand is in doubt, the accumulation of polyester in the later period is expected to be strong, but the contradiction will move backward in the case of low inventory.

It is worth mentioning that at present, polyester production is still in the expansion cycle. The original plan is to put into production of 5.5 million tons in 2020. However, affected by the epidemic situation, the polyester production plan has been delayed, and only 1.75 million tons are put into production at present. The growth rate of terminal texturing and loom demand gradually slowed down, and the prosperity of polyester industry gradually fell.