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The Situation Of Foreign Trade Is Serious, Can Export Enterprises Be Reborn?

2009/1/8 11:29:00 47

The new year has just arrived, but the shadow of 2008 is still hanging over. Due to the worsening of the current international financial crisis and the slowdown in global economic growth, China's foreign trade has gone through a sudden change and suffered an avalanche slide.

　　外贸形势不容乐观

According to statistics, in 2008 and November, China's foreign trade and import and export situation was in sharp decline. In the same month, China's total foreign trade imports and exports totaled 189 billion 890 million US dollars, down 9% from the same period last year.

Among them, total exports amounted to 114 billion 990 million US dollars, down 2.2% compared with the same period last year, and total imports amounted to US $74 billion 900 million, down 17.9% compared to the same period last year.

The monthly import and export value has been negative for the first time since October 2001, and the growth rate of monthly import and export is decreasing for the first time since October 1998.

For many years, the volume and price of China's foreign trade import and export have dropped for the first time, and the first is negative growth.

According to the General Administration of customs, the declining trend of imports and exports will continue for some time in 2009. According to the current international and domestic economic environment, the growth rate of import and export this year may slow down to below 5%.

Faced with the growth rate of imports and exports below 5%, we have to face the fact that this year may be the most difficult year for China's export enterprises.

　　困境中能否绝地重生？

In the face of the multiple challenges faced by the foreign trade environment, can the economy be reborn in the complex and changeable world economic situation in 2009?

In view of the risks and pressures borne by the export industry and the changes in the international economic situation, China has adopted a series of measures and will continue to take measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade.

We should support 9 industries, such as light industry, textiles, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and so on, and implement the VAT reform in an all-round way to encourage enterprises to "go out" and explore the international market.

Further increase the export tax rebate rate of electromechanical products with high technical content and high added value; further adjust the catalogue of prohibited categories and restricted categories of processing trade; implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to ease the financial difficulties of enterprises and expand the living space of enterprises.

In 2009, the import and export of China's foreign trade will decline. This is an inevitable phenomenon that global trade has experienced a negative growth pattern after many years of rapid growth. We should take an objective view of this decline.

He Shihong, executive director of the World Energy Finance Research Institute and President of the China Financial Research Institute, predicts that China's foreign trade export situation will not be reversed in a short period of time, but we must work together to strengthen confidence and vigorously push forward the pformation of China's foreign trade and win the "breakout battle" of foreign trade under the premise of vigorously expanding domestic demand.