Sun Lijian: The Three Pressures Facing Our Economy This Year.

However, because the main battlefield of economic and financial globalization will shift from the economically dynamic Europe and the developed countries to a large number of emerging market countries with huge economic scale and high growth and high savings. Therefore, the above-mentioned policy combination supporting the economic development will highlight the difficulties and variables of various government regulation because of the external strong shocks and the side effects of the "shock" caused by the defects of our own institutional system. For example, in today's environment where the appreciation of the currency is accelerating and the effect of structural adjustment is not obvious, the phenomenon of "false fire and strong fire" is very prominent.

The "hot money" has been mixed with the large number of "idle" industrial capital that has been concentrated in the financial market and the savings fund of restless consumers under inflation expectation. It has pushed up the pressure of inflation and asset bubble expansion in China, and made the central macroeconomic regulation and control policy combination force have to be repeated. Such a series of "strong" external pressures of "hedging" will, in turn, increase the pressure of our own structural adjustment in accordance with the 12th Five-Year plan, and ensure the smooth macroeconomic control of the reform.

To this end, at the beginning of the new year, I want to sort out the three major issues that deserve further attention and in-depth study according to some preliminary experiences in this stage.

　　首先，最大的外部压力是金融大海啸后美元主导的国际货币体系正在随着美国政府“国家利益至上”的宽松量化货币政策和美国经济实力依然表现出疲软、不确定的恶劣状况不断变得“长期化”的时候而开始越来越明显的在发生可怕的“裂变”：全球金融资本已开始不安心将自己的财富在继续放在一个没有“货币锚”(美元放水引起的价值疲软的特征)支撑的金融资产中，甚至避险时所需要的美国国债持有量最近也在被市场大量地减持，其中，有很多金融资本从理论上讲早应该在这场泡沫经济看似崩溃的“大洗盘”中销声匿迹，可是因为欧美政府(受到影响的其他国家也一样)担心经济硬着陆给自己政权稳定所造成的压力而不得不花血本去救助这些金融资本，最后让我们看到今天这些复活的流动性，请注意是“存量”复活，而可能不一定是目前被社会指责的欧美政

The amount of money that the government has done for the limited amount of money has become unscrupulous, and they have had a huge negative impact on us.

For example, the resulting large depreciation of the US dollar will "wash away" the value of US debt to China and increase the management cost of our US dollar increase in new export investment.

Moreover, the US dollar value continues to drop, making the relative scale of our exchange rate appreciation become more and more difficult to grasp. This year's Canton Fair and many commercial forums, we have noticed that import and export enterprises are hard to place orders.

Previously said enterprises themselves have the ability to adjust the appreciation of the exchange rate is also greatly reduced.

In addition, the weakness of the US dollar has not only led to a high gold level, but also to our anxiety that a large amount of capital flowing out of the financial market is now starting to kidnap the upstream resources of industrial production, which is becoming more and more expensive for the developing countries that invest mainly in the creation of wealth. Unconsciously, we will notice that the business of the main business is becoming less and less, and the "credit to price" advantage of Chinese products is being artificially suppressed.

Please note that China's trade structure reminds us that our exports will decrease while imports will also decrease.

而中美贸易不平衡、或美国贸易逆差格局——只要美国的消费方式和投资方式从根本上不改变——就并不会发生多大的实质性的变化!除了实体经济面的负面影响外，流出欧美市场的大量资金，再加上现在资金借贷成本因为欧美利率这么低会变得越来越小，今后流出的资金规模只要不发生突发事件也就会变得越来越多，他们选择流到的地方都有一些共同的特征：那就是高储蓄、高增长、甚至市场低效率而不断变得高开放的新兴市场国家!而世界第二大经济体的中国理所当然就成为了这一轮全球金融资本首选的对象，它们的到来，已经造成了包括中国在内的很多这类特征的国家投机行为猖獗——被光顾的资源型产品市场价格不断高企，而有些国家和地区至今为止楼市或股市还在脱离基本面的飞涨。

Therefore, the pressure of China's macroeconomic regulation and control is very huge. Zhou Xiaochuan's recent "pool theory" is a prominent performance.

Many Japanese scholars have so far been deeply concerned that the US "forced" yen appreciation has led to Japan's (competitive) industry hollowing out and "financial speculation" of financial bubbles. In fact, it is the most spicy tactic of "squeezing you crazy" by the United States to "squeeze out" its competitors.

At the beginning of 2010, the fate of the euro could be exactly the same.

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In short, we need to think about the us temporarily abandoning the negative impact of the "monetary anchor" function on China and the "I oriented" coping strategy, including the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate.

Otherwise, our blind passive confrontation will eventually lead the us to the "Crazy" level as Japan did in the past.

　　其次，目前中国经济所面临的通胀问题(美国的通缩问题也是一样)和以前中国历次所遇到的通胀问题性质上不完全一样，比如，90年代初期是因为短缺经济造成的，前两年通胀是经济过热造成的，而今年我们遇到的压力是增加了新的内容：由于经济复苏和经济发展主要是靠政府在积极推动，所以，大量产业资本，尤其是民营资本因为今天擅长做生意的国际舞台并没有重新开张，而新的舞台又没有机会和条件去发挥能力，从而不得不被迫“闲置”了下来，另一方面，国企和央企虽然没有流动性的约束但由于追求商业利润的动机不亚于民营资本，所以，他们虽然没有像民营资本那样，“很干脆地”成批成批向金融资本转变，但是它们的资金规模和民营资本不是在一个起跑线上，所以，在金融市场上屡屡打“擦边球”的投机行为(常常被包装)给中国经济造成的负面影响

It will not be smaller than private capital.

Therefore, as soon as possible, we should change the supporting mode of the government's "blood pfusion" economic development as soon as possible, and build up the market's vitality of "blood generating" economic development through measures such as continuous improvement of system construction and government's in place public service as soon as possible. This is the key element to solve the current structural inflation of China's economy from the root.

Otherwise, in accordance with the usual regulation of inflation, there may be a great negative effect. Even because of the long absence of market vitality caused by excessive government intervention and the continuous huge financial burden of the government, the cost of our sustainable development model will become bigger and bigger. The risk of macroeconomic fluctuations will also accumulate in the future. (the recent "persistent downturn" of stock market may have a great relationship with the lack of "market vitality" in the real economy. Otherwise, there will be plenty of social capital and there is no reason why the market will not rise.

Third, the United States' financial tsunami and the global government's rescue methods make the inequality of income distribution among regions, industries and classes become more and more serious.

Although countries differ in degree and their formation mechanisms are quite different, this makes the social foundation for repairing the economic trauma very fragile.

Both the US health care reform system and the reform of Japan's social welfare system have encountered unprecedented obstacles. Let alone rely on this pattern of income distribution imbalance to boost domestic consumption demand.

China is no exception. The development support and reform and adjustment of the income redistribution mechanism between the central and western regions are all very complex projects, which not only take time but also need wisdom and conceptual innovation consciousness.

However, if we can not find an effective way of governance in time, the internal pressure of China's economic reform will become bigger and bigger as the problem of inequality of income distribution becomes more and more serious.

For example, because wealth is more concentrated on the owners of capital, the talents and capital needed by structural adjustment will become increasingly scarce and more expensive. Moreover, the ethics and spirit of the enterprisers who share the hardships and hardships will become more and more distorted.

In order to form the "capital" needed to become rich as soon as possible, people will desperately save (including financial investment), eager for quick success and instant benefits, and even some officials take risks, corrupt and corrupt.

In short, solving the problem of inequality of income distribution can not be simply regarded as a simple economic problem, nor is it a question of how much money is allocated. Of course, even today, the system of basic guarantee of equal pay for equal work and excessive labor has not been fully constructed in some places. This really causes the public to show great dissatisfaction with this problem, and this tendency can also be seen from the recent dialogue between netizens and Premier Wen.

However, we should also see that today's income inequality is more reflected in the inequality of opportunity, because it is a special status, because the family is rich, so that many capable young people have been squeezed out of the normal track of their own ability to become rich.

Therefore, in 12th Five-Year, in order to achieve the goal of "inclusive growth", we should quickly come up with a set of effective measures to deal with the problem of "inequality of income distribution", which may include political, economic, legal, cultural and ethical areas.