PTA Will Maintain Tight Supply

As of November 20th, the average production loss of polyester was about 200 yuan / ton.

Affected by the weakening of terminal demand, polyester production and marketing average maintained at 70% - 90%.

Among them, driven by the strong rise in PTA futures, PET production and sales rose to 200% - 300% last Friday, but the continuous volume of terminal volume replenishment is expected to be limited.

After December, the demand for terminal textile will weaken seasonally, which will be right.

The operating rate has a negative effect, but in the short term, there is little room for a significant decline in polyester load.

The latest EIA

The US crude oil inventories increased slightly by 252 thousand barrels to 487 million 300 thousand barrels, nearly 490 million barrels hit by April, and Cushing's crude oil inventories increased by 2 million 100 thousand barrels to 60 million 600 thousand barrels.

With the advent of winter, the global refinery operating rate will rise seasonally to ease the pressure on stocks. But in the context of the two month high oil production in the United States, Russia's failure to accept crude oil production and the return of Iran crude oil to the international market, it is hard to reach a OPEC Ministerial Conference in December 4th.

Superimposed the Fed's interest rate expectations under the strong pattern of the dollar index, the relaxed supply situation makes international oil prices face further downward pressure, the PTA cost formation of negative guidance.

At present, the start-up load of Ningbo CICC PX plant has increased to 90%. The load of Qingdao East PX plant has been raised to 75%, and the domestic PX operation rate has increased 2.2 percentage points to 66.1% a week ago.

Later, a 350 thousand ton / year production line of Yangzi Petrochemical is expected to be overhauled at the end of November. Another 500 thousand ton / year production line is planned to replace the overhaul. The Luoyang Petrochemical 225 thousand ton / year PX plant is planned to restart at the end of November.

Therefore, the domestic PX supply is maintained at a relatively adequate level.

from

Look, last Friday, Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons of PTA device temporary troubleshooting, Tung Kun Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand tons PTA device to keep up with the car maintenance.

Domestic PTA plant operating rate dropped to 56%, the corresponding reduction in consumption of PX makes PX supply and demand relatively loose. PX's current US $794 / ton CFR China price corresponds to 53 US dollars / ton production profit, which has certain compression space.

At present, the supply pattern of domestic PTA market has changed significantly. The 3 million 200 thousand ton PTA capacity of the Far East petrochemical company has gone bankrupt. The annual output of 6 million 150 thousand tons PTA capacity of Xiang Lu petrochemical company has been hopeless, with a total of 4 million tons of long-term idle PTA output, and the effective usable capacity of domestic PTA is only 33 million 300 thousand tons.

The capacity of domestic PTA production leader Yisheng (13 million 500 thousand tons) accounts for 40% of the domestic immediate effective capacity, and its monopoly on the PTA supply market is enhanced.

We believe that the PTA factory, represented by Yisheng, will adjust the load to maintain a moderately tight supply rhythm. This will help reduce the proportion of contracted products on the downstream polyester links, and on the other hand, help increase the bargaining chip of upstream PX factories, so as to get a higher discount on PX contract goods.

On the whole, crude oil price and raw material end PX price oscillation are weak, which is a guide to the cost of PTA.

However, at present, PTA social inventory is relatively low, Hengli petrochemical and Tong Kun's device parking inspection, and later Yisheng Petrochemical led PTA plant tightening the spot to get the bargaining chips for next year's contract goods, will form a significant supporting role for PTA.

We believe that under the backdrop of the running environment of the external commodities, PTA's anti fall mode is expected to remain.