From "Money Shortage" To "Asset Shortage", What Should Investors Do?

After years of great backwardness and the relatively low returns of all kinds of assets, the trouble of "money more" seems to be difficult to find a relief port.

"It's not easy to wait until the end of the year, and the proceeds continue to fall." like many investors, Zhang Juan, who worked in the trust company, originally expected the bank to launch high yield financial products at the end of the year just as it did in previous years, and so on, but the overall return level of the major banks continued to descend. The effect of the "tail effect" was only reflected in the narrowing of the decline.

Zhang Juan used to be a financial man in the eyes of clients, friends and relatives. He is like a duck in water in trust, bank financing, P2P and other financial products. Now he is also trapped in the confusion of "high income and difficult to resist inflation": affected by some factors, the rate of trust receipts in one year is not obvious yet, but the one-year full market interest rate has dropped significantly. The risk-free financial returns have basically fallen below 4%, and P2P yields have also been innovating repeatedly. "In the past, the comprehensive yield has reached 20%, and now 10% is hard to keep, and the A shares are somewhat hesitant."

Because the marketization reform of interest rate has not been completely completed, the "risk side" and the "income side" are not yet reciprocal. Under the drive of the rate of return, the liquidity adequacy fund is eager to find the answer for what course to follow, resulting in the phenomenon of capital mobilization and migration.

Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, analyzed that the total outflow of A shares reached 4 trillion and 400 billion yuan in early 8, and the net outflow of funds was still up to 2 trillion and 900 billion yuan, taking into account the capital inflow of the company. After months of adjustment and IPO restart stimulus, in November, the net inflow of investors' bank card transfer funds was 79 billion 700 million yuan, reversing the net outflow since July.

The change in the A share market is only a microcosm of the movement of capital in the Chinese market.

"I think there is a bull market in the stock market in the future. This bull market is forced out. Why? Because there is no room for money." The chief economist of the Industrial Bank, Lu political commissar, is very sympathetic.

Behind the movement of more than trillions of funds, the 50 trillion resident savings deposits are faced with the problem of reconfiguration of assets under the trend of continuous interest rate deposits.

From "money shortage" to "asset shortage", the "balance treasure" class money fund products from the red tide to the decline in yields, the most representative reflection of personal investors such as Zhang Juan's troubles. In the three quarter, the size of the money market reached 3 trillion and 670 billion yuan, and the growth of the single season grew by more than 50%. However, the rate of return continued to decline, breaking 3% became the norm.

P2P, which is also in the Internet Financial outlet, has gradually increased its industrial loan balance from July to November. It has increased to 400 billion 543 million yuan in November, equivalent to two times at the end of 6, an increase of 267.34% over the same period last year, but the average rate of return has dropped from around 15% at the beginning of the year to below 10%.

The huge liquidity brought by the reconfiguration of residents' wealth has made a contrast in the organization's work. "The deepest feeling with many organizations is not bad money. It is said that there is a surge in premiums of insurance companies, and it is declined to take the initiative to come to the bank to co-exist. Huang Wentao, chief macroeconomic analyst of CITIC investment, said in an interview with the financial weekly.

For this phenomenon, Shen Wan Hongyuan pointed out in a recent report: "asset shortage" is essentially an imbalance between financial management and the decline in demand for physical financing.

The surge of bank financial products is undoubtedly the representative of personal savings fund's "financial management". At the end of 2013, more than 100 banks issued more than 45 thousand products, and the total amount raised was more than 68 trillion yuan. In 2014, the total amount raised amounted to 92 trillion and 530 billion yuan.

Back to 2013, the credit squeeze caused by local financing demand expansion, real estate bubble and excess capacity investment impulse led banks to turn out high-yield products in turn, and the scale of asset management of other financial institutions rose rapidly. The move of investors' deposits has become a hot trend, which has pushed the phenomenon of dual interest rate system leading to fund disintermediation for many years.

Many of the respondents' investments were still fresh in the memory of the "high yield zero risk" myth of the trust and the bloomer financial products advertisements.

By the middle of 2014, regulatory policy tightened and market risk-free interest rate had a downward inflection point. Investors began to rush to the stock market. Stock trading accounts increased sharply, equity funds and new fund products were looted. The total assets of sunshine private sector management increased to 400 billion yuan, and the scale of two breakthroughs exceeded trillion.

The "financial management" craze has rewritten the past investors. Rate of return Expectations. When the stock market adjusts investors to flee, the risk preference decreases, but the expected rate of return is still relatively high. "Money shortage" has become a past event, and investors are deeply lost.

Reporters interviewed a number of banks, brokerages and public and private institutions learned that after the stock market adjustment, investors are flocking to the IMF, bank financing and bond markets, and the traditional fixed income trust business is booming again. Superposition of the central bank repeatedly cut interest rates, so the emergence of products mentioned above, "volume rise or fall" phenomenon.

According to data from 360 monitoring, November bank financial products A total of 6693 items, the expected average yield of 4.23%, down 0.13 percentage points from October, fell for eight consecutive months and hit two new lows.

Along with the continuous downward trend of interest rates, the bond market is constantly moving. However, with the gradual narrowing of spreads, especially the low credit risk premium, the attractiveness gradually decreases, and investors are more eager to have better investment targets.

From June to September, more than 120 thousand market capitalization of more than 5 million yuan were fading out of the A share market, and the other side of the market, since the three quarter, many trust companies received a huge sum of more than 1 billion yuan.

Institutions are accelerating the pace of innovation to try to compete with investors, but investors always vote with their feet.

In October this year, more than 5 million yuan or more of the market capitalization increased by nearly 30 thousand households at the end of 9, and nearly 60 thousand households from 10 million yuan to 100 million yuan, accounting for 1010 more than 100 million yuan. This is also the first time that data has been rebounded since the decline of 4 months in a row.

At the same time, the scale of public fundraising has returned to 7 trillion yuan for the first time after four months. The net scale of equity funds has increased significantly, and the scale of mixed funds and equity funds has reached 1 trillion and 820 billion yuan and 740 billion yuan respectively.

Although solid sales trust products are selling well, the signs of capital returning to the stock market and their own size are all insufficient. At the end of the three quarter of this year, the scale of trust assets managed by the whole industry was 15 trillion and 620 billion yuan, which is the first negative growth since the first quarter of 2010.

Although there are large orders in the trust of fixed income, the pressure on trust business has increased significantly. On the one hand, the capital is relatively abundant, and the cost of local governments and enterprises has been reduced. On the other hand, the willingness to finance enterprises is also shrinking. A trust manager of Founder East Asia Trust said.

"Customers often ask for complaints from leaders, and even ask whether there is unfair operation in product sales shortage. If we have enough assets and huge profit margins, why don't we want to sell more? "A Shenzhen trust sales manager told the financial weekly.

The sales manager said, "real estate to bubble, excess capacity adjustment, local debt replacement and so on, these assets are all important targets of bank financial investment, so it will obviously feel that there is nowhere to invest, and it is difficult for investors to answer satisfactorily."

In order to maintain the stickiness of investors, banks, insurance companies, securities dealers, trust funds and funds all try to return from "financing intermediaries" to "managers". Investor While moving interest rates into the market, it also brings greater pressure to the transformation of "Pan capital management".

China Merchants Bank data show that 2015 of the total personal investment assets of the whole country is expected to reach 129 trillion yuan, the population of high net worth will reach 1 million 260 thousand, and the domestic private wealth market will continue to release considerable growth potential and huge market value.

The record of private equity fund managers' record is an example of financial institutions seeking private wealth market. Up to now, nearly half of the 68 trust companies have become "private equity fund managers". The Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Beijing bank and Jiangsu Changshu agricultural business bank have recently announced the completion of the registration and insurance funds are also unwilling to lag behind.

From the primary market data, the investment scale declined rapidly in the middle of 2015, and the data from CIC showed that in November, a total of 44 fund raising projects were completed, with a scale of about 3 billion 903 million US dollars. The scale of the target raising and the scale of the fund-raising were reduced to a certain extent compared with the same period.

A head of the retail business headquarters of a joint-stock commercial bank said: "although the" money is much ", but before the real economy has stabilized, the enterprise has a higher risk of repayment, and the banks are more severe on the credit side, so it is difficult to improve the yield of the liabilities side.

How to make excess capacity, inefficient investment and high return areas of non entity economy no longer occupy a large amount of resources, and promote economic growth in new areas is the subject of policy makers. The core of the transformation of Pan capital management institutions is to introduce high-quality assets, products and achieve real sense of innovation.

For large organizations, Big money In addition, the high expected rate of return and the lack of asset allocation also make the organization anxious. "Every Congress encourages innovation, and the internal rewards for product innovation are higher and higher, and the pressure is increasing." the head of the commercial bank said, "the rate of return on assets is much faster than the cost of bank financing. Many banks have no choice but to outsource third parties, and also hope that the third parties will exert pressure on internal product development."

A partner of the sunshine private equity company's warm current assets told the finance and economy weekly that the big banks, including CDB and Bank of communications, were interested in investing in their bonds. Many agencies also indicated that they had been invited by many banks for negotiation.