Monetary Turn To Neutral View Inflation Pressure Begins To Ease

The first signs of economic recovery, consistent indicators continue to improve, indicating that the economic recovery extended to the end of the two quarter - the three quarter after the beginning of the pressure of a further callback, but the quarter may fluctuate slightly, showing the bottom of the characteristics of shock.

Core view: the recent economic slowdown in the first indicators, housing sales volume and land volume fell sharply, a year-on-year high callback, indicating that the growth rate of M1 will fall to the top. Deputy Prime Minister Zhang Gaoli said that the M2 growth rate slowed down in April.

Authoritative figures have indicated that monetary easing has come to an end, and supply side reform will be the main trend in the future.

The central bank's monetary policy report paid attention to prices in the first quarter, and monetary policy turned to neutral observation period.

Synchronization indicators show that the economy is temporarily warming, crude steel production continues to rise, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment continue to pick up, but the power consumption of coal fell, is expected to end the two quarter of the three quarter of the economy is facing a new callback pressure.

To maintain the short-term W and medium-term L type of economic judgment, it is expected that the long-term realization of the U recovery can be achieved only through the reform.

Downstream: Sales of commercial housing and land turnover both fall.

123 line of commercial housing sales fell in full scale, 30 large and medium cities commercial housing area in May 8th when the week was -28.7%, in which first line (-25.4%), second line (-30.8%), three line (-23.9%), in early May than -30%, in which first line (-28.4%), second line (-32.4%), three line (-22.9%).5 month 8 week, 100 large and medium-sized cities land area occupied by Zhou ring than -28.2%.

Combined with the recent slowdown in housing prices in the first tier cities, some signs of peaking appear in the current housing market.

Movie box office was hot. In May 8th, when the movie box office income was 1 billion 110 million yuan, it hit a new high in the Spring Festival.

Middle reaches: crude steel output continues to rise, electricity consumption coal falls, and industrial prices fall.

Crude steel output continued to pick up, the average daily output in late April was 1.5%, rising for 2 consecutive months.

The coal consumption of power generation has dropped. On the 1-12 day of May, the 6 major power generating groups consumed 549 thousand and 600 tons of coal per day, down 1% compared with April.

Industrial prices continued to fall. As of May 12th, the South China industrial index fell by 3.8% and 9.5% respectively compared with the end of last week and 4.

The price of rebar continues to fall, down 8.3% compared with last week in May 12th.

Plastic prices continued to fall after they peaked in early April, and fell slightly by 1% in May 12th compared with the end of May 12th.

Upstream: commodities are mixed, crude oil and agricultural products.

Iron ore and copper fell back.

Spot oil rebounded by 3.2% compared with last week as of May 11th.

As of May 12th, the index of South China agricultural products and corn index increased by 3% and 1.9% respectively compared with last week.

As of May 11th, 62% iron ore spot and LME copper spot fell 3.6% and 2.2% respectively compared with last week.

CRB spot index remained stable.

Affected by the international economic slowdown, the BDI index fell 8.2% in May 11th as compared with last week.

Price: vegetable prices continue to fall, and pork prices are at a high level.

The short term is at the end of the battle.

According to the Ministry of agriculture, the price of vegetables fell by 11% on the 1-12 th of May and the price of pork rose by 0.5%.

At the turn of spring and summer, the supply of vegetables was abundant, and vegetable prices had declined for 2 consecutive months.

At present, the national pig grain price ratio has risen to 11.41, reaching a record high. High frequency data show that the average wholesale price of pork remained at around 26.5 yuan for more than 20 days as of May 12th, and pork prices showed signs of high stability.

At the end of the first quarter, the sow and pig farm were both positive. The * * * * is expected to reach the peak in the year of the pig cycle. The price increase will slow down, but it will continue to run high for a period of time.

In terms of overall food prices, the Ministry of agriculture data showed that food prices fell 3.2% by the end of 4 as of May 12th.

It is expected that the CPI's short-term rise will be short-lived and inflation expectations will peaked.

Money: money market interest rates and Treasury yields are stable.

Obviously narrowed.

After a two week fall in the interest rate of money market, this week rebounded slightly. In May 11th, the 1 day and 7 day interbank repurchase weighted interest rates were 2.03% and 2.47%, respectively, rising 1 BP and 5 BP respectively compared with last week, but they still had 7 BP and 4 BP lower than the end of 4.

As of May 11th, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was basically flat last week, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds fell by 4 BP.

Credit risk mitigation, as of May 11th, AAA corporate debt (10 years) credit spreads narrowed 11 BP compared with last week.

The US dollar index was basically flat, and the central parity of RMB against the US dollar fluctuated slightly. In May, the 12 Daily 6.50 was 243 higher than last week.