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The Decline Of Zheng Mian Has A Great Impact On The Confidence Of Bulls, Cotton Merchants And Cotton Enterprises

2017/3/23 13:59:00 191

Zheng MianCotton MerchantCotton EnterpriseMarket Situation

Although the downstream textile mills received orders for cotton yarn smoothly, the inventory of finished products decreased significantly, and some manufacturers even ran short of high count yarn, high configuration yarn, JC40S and JC60S, the spot price of cotton in 2016/17 was only 200-300 yuan/ton lower than that before the Spring Festival (the pace of adjustment fell significantly behind the futures), and the terminal grey cloth clothing The order acceptance price is still at the level before the Spring Festival, so although the number of orders is large, the low profit is another major factor restricting the rebound of the listed prices of Zheng Mian and spot goods.

On March 21-22, Zheng Mian's main CF1705 contract broke 15000 yuan/ton, which had a great impact on the confidence of bulls, cotton merchants and cotton enterprises. The spot market shows a polarization trend. On the one hand, the gross weight of high-quality and high-grade Xinjiang cotton (including hand picked and machine picked) is only reduced by 150-200 yuan/ton, which is generally reluctant to sell and resistant to decline. There is a strong expectation for the gap of high-quality cotton from April to September.

While some large traders purchase high-quality and highly spinnable lint storage from the spot market and the reserve cotton round auction market, waiting for the price in the future; On the other hand, new cotton with low quality and spinnability Reserve cotton Under the pressure of listing and circulation, the price of "Double 28" and "Double 29" hand picked cotton in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other mainland warehouses is generally 16000-16200 yuan/ton and 16300-16500 yuan/ton (gross weight), but the price of 3127/2127 (breaking strength 27 and below) local cotton is only 14800-15200 yuan/ton, and the difference between the two is more than 1000 yuan/ton.

According to analysis, Zheng Mian's contracts have entered this round Cotton price At the bottom of the downward adjustment, the long and short sides will hold a stalemate and fight a decisive battle at the front line of 15000 yuan/ton, and the bulls will recover 15300 yuan/ton and 15500 yuan/ton of lost ground in succession.

First of all, judging from the spot and reserve cotton round transaction prices, Zheng Mian is in an oversold state. On March 20-22, the gross weight of spot goods in the mainland warehouse of Grade 3128 Xinjiang cotton was more than 16000 yuan/ton, and the price of futures warehouse receipts should be more than 15500 yuan/ton; On the 21st, the average transaction price of reserve cotton rotation was 15899 yuan/ton at 3128 standard level, which was also 500-600 yuan/ton higher than the CF1705 contract price;

Secondly, with a large number of reserve cotton being rotated out, the cost of low and medium count yarn in the yarn mill has declined significantly, the profit situation is gradually improving, and cotton demand will enter a fast channel. On March 20 and 21, the average transaction price of the reserve cotton rotation was 14733 yuan/ton and 14637 yuan/ton respectively, but the prices of 21S and 32S cotton yarns on the market were 22500 yuan/ton and 23500 yuan/ton respectively. The profit of the yarn mill was significantly improved due to the use of reserve cotton;

Thirdly, by the end of March, the comprehensive cost of 3128/2128 lint cotton in Xinjiang had reached more than 15800 yuan/ton, and the cost of moving to the inland warehouse had been no less than 16200-16300 yuan/ton (gross weight). In addition, with the arrival of a new round of replenishment for high-quality cotton by textile enterprises and traders, Zheng Mian will adjust from discount to premium, and rebound before spot goods and matching.

For more information, please pay attention to the report of World Clothing, Shoes and Hats Network.


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