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Cause Analysis: PX Enterprises Concentrated Load Drop In October

2019/10/16 15:45:00 0

After the National Day holiday, it continues to spread. PX The downloading and downtime maintenance of the enterprise can also be seen from the chart above. Ten Month PX The start-up rate plummeted, the lowest in the whole year. ( 5-6 In June, the commencement of the commencement statistics took into consideration the Hengli Dalian petrochemical plant, but it was pulled down because it had just started and the load was low. PX Domestic overall start-up rate. at present PX Spot market and Eleven The supply of goods was exceptionally tight in April, resulting in individual large scale. PTA Because of the lack of solid raw materials, enterprises are forced to reduce their load. What are the specific companies? PX What is the reason for the adjustment of plant startup and the reduction of production willingness of enterprises? And listen to the little editor.

First, Device adjustment details

Enterprise name	Capacity (10000 tons)	Load adjustment
Qingdao Li Dong	One hundred	Nine Monthly load reduced to 65%
Dalian Fu Jia	One hundred and forty	Ten Month load drop to 70%
Liaoyang Petrochemical small line	Twenty-five	Ten Stop for 3-4 days at the beginning of the month.
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company	One hundred	Ten Monthly boot rate dropped to 70%-80%
Shandong Zhonghua Hongrun	Sixty	Stop after a long vacation
Fuhai creation	One hundred and sixty	Ten On 14 February, the load dropped to 25% and returned to 50% after 5 days.
Korean modern	Eighty	Nine Monthly operating rate decreased by 10-20 percentage points
South Korea	One hundred and thirty-five	Nine Monthly operating rate decreased by 10-20 percentage points
Korean Lotte	Twenty-five	Nine Month downtime

Source: lung Chung

Two. Analysis of the reasons behind it

2.1 MX And PX Price differentials narrowed sharply

PX and MX Monthly average price list

dollar / ton

date	PX CFR China	MX CFR China	Spread
Two thousand and nineteen January 2013	One thousand and forty-one point eight eight	Six hundred and eighty-three point eight six	Three hundred and fifty-eight point zero two
Two thousand and nineteen February 2013	One thousand one hundred and four point three nine	Six hundred and ninety-four point five	Four hundred and nine point eight nine
Two thousand and nineteen March 2013	One thousand and eighty-six point nine	Seven hundred and one point zero two	Three hundred and eighty-five point eight eight
Two thousand and nineteen April 2013	One thousand and twelve point seven four	Seven hundred and thirty-six point two four	Two hundred and seventy-six point five
Two thousand and nineteen May 2013	Eight hundred and eighty-four point six	Seven hundred and twenty-five point four one	One hundred and fifty-nine point one nine
Two thousand and nineteen June 2013	Eight hundred and thirty-one point zero eight	Seven hundred and eleven point five eight	One hundred and nineteen point five
Two thousand and nineteen July 2013	Eight hundred and forty-nine point six three	Seven hundred and thirty-three point two six	One hundred and sixteen point three seven
Two thousand and nineteen August 2013	Seven hundred and ninety-two point eight seven	Seven hundred and fifteen point one five	Seventy-seven point seven two
Two thousand and nineteen September 2013	Seven hundred and ninety-seven point zero eight	Seven hundred and twenty-three point four eight	Seventy-three point six
Two thousand and nineteen October 1-11	Seven hundred and ninety-six point two three	Six hundred and eighty-four point seven two	One hundred and eleven point five one

As everyone knows, PX The direct raw material is MX If we do not consider the two phase of Hainan refining and chemical industry, we will consider it PX Device, no way MX Directly to PX Short chain device, but because of the expansion or reorganization of some enterprises. MX Production is not enough, so most businesses need small purchases. MX To enhance PX The operating rate will maximize the device profits. As can be seen from the above figure, since the year Four The month begins. PX and MX The price differentials continued to narrow, and the profitability of enterprises continued to decrease. Two thousand and nineteen year Eight Month begins, part time. PX and MX The price difference continues. Sixty dollar / Around the ton, Nine month Three The price difference fell to Fifty-seven point three three dollar / Tons, the lowest in the year. MX The continuous increase in prices and the decrease in corporate profits are the main factors leading to the reduction of profits. PX The main reason for the decrease in production willingness of enterprises. And why are domestic enterprises chosen? Ten Concentrated production or load reduction is not a month. PX And MX The spreads narrowed narrowing. Eight In the month, the main reason is that enterprises need to purchase raw materials in advance, and arrange the next month's production. MX High price is reflected in PX There will be a certain delay in the cost accounting of enterprises. Secondly PX The downstream businesses are all about long customers and need to adjust the amount of contract as soon as possible. Therefore, the adjustment of enterprise installations is all in progress. Nine Month or Ten Month.

2.2 MX Tight supply

From above, we can see that at present, the inventory of East China main port is at a low level. PX The difficulty in purchasing raw materials is another reason for the low rate of start-up. MX The main reasons for tight goods and high prices are as follows:

One , Four Beginning in April, the first batch of refinery in Hainan MX To the port, so that the second line smoothly driving, long Zhong statistics, Hainan refining and chemical two phase of the boot, MX Monthly needs Six Ten thousand tons. (in accordance with 60% The boot rate is calculated. Hainan refinery began to prepare materials. Three The month begins. PX and MX The prelude to narrowing the price gap was drawn.

Two A large scale in Northeast China PX Factories, Eight In October, a set of restructuring problems intensified. MX The purchase is caused by Eight Month PX and MX The direct cause of widening spreads.

Three , Seven Japan has strong demand for gasoline in summer. MX Giving priority to gasoline, so the market is tight.

Four , Nine Supply in Europe is tight in the month, and some of the Middle East xylene arbitrage flows to Europe.

Five Zhejiang petrochemical, Hengyi Brunei PX Before the start of the operation, some of the reserves were reserved. MX In order to drive and debug the machine.

Three. PX Prediction of late operating rate

MX After the price continues to rise, PX Enterprises began to reduce load and reduce demand. MX The premium for imported goods is obvious. The first phase of Jinling Petrochemical plant was overhauled this month, and the xylene project was exported, and the short-term market prices still had downward expectations. and PX and MX Price gap in experience Eight Yue He Nine After the low monthly oscillation, Ten The monthly rebound is obvious. stay MX and PX Under the background of price increase, it is estimated that PX The rate of commencement of business starts to pick up. Eleven Month or Twelve Month.