Is it time for the new energy vehicle, which has been developing at a high speed for five years, to meet the market's second inspection?
According to the standards of fuel vehicles, it is still too early for new energy vehicles to talk about second-hand car transactions. However, some reports released by industry organizations show that the new energy used car market is quietly forming.
Before that, consumers of second-hand cars and second-hand cars have paid attention to the situation of value preservation. Despite the lack of a unified residual value evaluation standard, most brands and models on the market have roughly maintained the value preservation rate under scattered valuation and transaction, and the low value preservation rate of new energy vehicles has become one of the defects criticized by this emerging species.
Even the new force of car making, which has been on the market for a short time, has begun to have vehicles entering the secondary circulation. Recently, a report released by the online auction platform of second-hand cars every day said that new brands such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and Weima have entered the second-hand car market one after another. It is expected that in the coming year, the replacement peak of vehicles sold by new forces of car making will come soon.
The above report did not disclose the specific scale of the second-hand car source of the new force of car making. However, the models of Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weima and other auto companies have not been on the market for a long time - Weima automobile, which was first delivered, started delivery at the end of September 2018, and is now just over two years away. According to the prediction of the above report, the replacement cycle of new energy vehicles is relatively short.
However, in terms of the number of second-hand vehicle drivers, whether it is more appropriate to collect data on the second-hand car market, whether it's the second-hand vehicle's driving cycle, it's more likely that the second-hand vehicle's driving cycle is more suitable for the new energy market Handcart is a traditional fuel car with a bad color.
On average, a new energy vehicle will enter the secondary circulation market faster than a traditional fuel vehicle. This is not difficult to explain. Although the new energy vehicles entered the market relatively late and the number of new energy vehicles is very low, it is expected that in the next 1-2 years, the new energy used car market is expected to form a scale in China. At the same time, according to the product characteristics of new energy vehicles, automobile enterprises have also launched various measures to improve the value preservation rate.
New energy used car "on the market" early
The intelligent electric vehicle under the software "definition" adds the attributes of electronic consumer goods to the automobile products, and from the perspective of the renewal cycle, the new energy vehicles are closer to the electronic consumer goods than the traditional fuel vehicles.
The daily car auction recently released a new energy used car data report, which statistics the situation of used new energy vehicles traded on the platform in the first three quarters of this year. The statistics found that there was a significant difference in the mileage of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles when they were replaced.
According to the report, the replacement cycle of new energy vehicles is shorter: 63% of new energy vehicles are sold after driving less than 50000 km, while only 27% of fuel vehicles are sold within 50000 km. If we refine the interval, 51% of the vehicles driven 80000 km have been replaced, while the proportion of new energy vehicles is only 19%.
There are, in fact, similar data on the number of years of use. Previous industry data released by China Automobile Circulation Association and Jingzhen estimation also showed that the service life of new energy used cars is shorter than that of traditional second-hand cars. According to the above data, 62.8% of the used new energy vehicles were traded nationwide in November 2019. Among them, 62.8% were used for less than 2 years, 28.4% were for 2-4 years, and 8.6% were for 4-6 years.
One of the reasons for the short service life of new energy vehicles is the structure of new energy vehicles. Some automobile industry experts familiar with the second-hand car trade told the 21st century economic report that at present, the vast majority of new energy used cars come from the b-end operation field, and there are relatively few private users. These cars have a short driving distance and are then sold to the third and fourth tier cities and below.
The relatively small overall scale and the particularity of policy driven may also cause the new energy vehicles to enter the secondary circulation earlier. An insider who takes pictures of cars every day told our reporter that they did not conduct a large-scale investigation on the reasons for the short mileage of second-hand new energy vehicles. However, he personally believes that on the one hand, new energy vehicles have entered the market for a relatively short time. On the whole, the circulation of second-hand cars is still dominated by fuel vehicles. Therefore, the age and mileage of used new energy vehicles when they are traded will be higher On the other hand, second-hand new energy vehicles are mainly exported from first tier cities. Because first tier cities have strict control over fuel vehicle license plates, in contrast, the licensing policy for new energy vehicles in the past two years is very loose. Therefore, many families choose to buy a new energy vehicle for transition when they can't get the fuel vehicle license plate After the quota, the new energy vehicles will be sold.
Is it expected to form a scale in the next year or two?
When it comes to second-hand new energy vehicles, the first reaction of the vast majority of people is that the value preservation rate is very low. In recent years, with more and more second-hand new energy vehicles entering the circulation field, many institutions have made statistics on the value preservation rate of new energy second-hand cars, and these statistics all draw the conclusion that the value preservation rate of new energy used cars is very low.
For example, according to the "report on China's automobile value preservation rate in 2019" released by China Automotive Finance and value preservation rate research committee, in the past three years, the average value preservation rate of mainstream new energy vehicles is only 32.31%, which is much lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles. From the perspective of one-year value preservation rate of pure electric vehicles, except Tesla, which is more than 60%, the value preservation rate of other models is generally low.
Behind this is the new energy vehicle used car market has not yet formed. New energy vehicle is an emerging industry relying on policies to encourage its development. Although it has gradually become a large-scale industry in the past two years, it is still in a difficult transition from policy driven to market driven, and it is still immature, not to mention the downstream second-hand car industry.
Although there are many reports related to the value preservation rate of new energy used cars in the market, there is no clear annual trading volume data so far - online trading platforms are subject to the disclosure of core data, while institutions incorporated into more statistical channels say "the volume is too small".
Second hand car trade is relatively small in China. According to the data, in 2019, the cumulative transaction volume of second-hand cars in China is 14.9228 million, while the overall car ownership is 260 million, including only 3.81 million new energy vehicles.
It is estimated that the new energy used car market will show explosive growth in 2018, with an annual transaction scale of about 150000 vehicles. However, it is not appropriate to judge the sales volume of second-hand new energy vehicles in the past two years. The above analysis points out that the market in 2018 is relatively special. In that year, more than 80% of the used new energy vehicles were quasi new vehicles with the age of one year or less. A considerable part of the new energy vehicles were sold as "quasi new vehicles" after being licensed or transferred to their time-sharing leasing companies for operation The real demand for used cars.
However, with the increase of sales and ownership of new energy vehicles, the real transaction of second-hand new energy vehicles is expected to form a scale. Some analysts believe that the next year or two will be the key period for the formation of the new energy used car market: on the one hand, the distorted supply of new energy used cars will be improved (for example, the models of new automobile makers such as Weilai and Weima are market-oriented, and the proportion of individual users is also higher). On the other hand, the layout of automobile enterprises in the field of residual value management of new energy vehicles will be ready Effect.
Supply side adjustment has begun to take shape. From the perspective of value preservation rate, this year's new energy used cars have significantly increased year on year. Take the value preservation rate of three-year-old pure electric vehicles released by China Automobile Circulation Association as an example. This year, it was 41.8%, while in the same period last year, it was 33.5%.
According to the analysis of the Circulation Association, the data survey shows that the improvement of the overall value preservation rate of new energy vehicles comes from the change of internal structure. The share of pure electric vehicles, Tesla, BMW and other luxury brands in the second-hand car market has increased. In contrast, the value preservation rate of plug-in hybrid models is hovering at the bottom. One of the reasons is that the share of independent brands such as Rongwei is relatively high The card premium is low.
Automobile enterprises start the "battle" of value preservation
It is of great significance to improve the value preservation rate of new energy vehicles. From the industrial level, it can promote the positive operation of the industry, and from the enterprise level, it is conducive to the expansion of sales.
In order to alleviate the anxiety of new energy vehicle value preservation as much as possible, major engine plants have also carried out various layout, including the establishment of official second-hand car channels, commitment to maintain the value of the buyback within a certain period of time, etc. At present, most of the mainstream manufacturers have established used car recycling platform. Comparatively speaking, commitment to value preserving repurchase is a more reassuring policy for consumers.
In August this year, Geely's second pure electric brand geometric C was launched on the market. At the same time, it launched the policy of "20% discount for value preservation and repurchase" to solve the two key problems of low residual value of second-hand pure electric vehicles and no place for users to sell their second-hand cars. It is said that geometric C's hedging policy is the first official vehicle hedging and repurchase policy in the industry, which can be returned directly.
Although there is only a two-year time limit for the hedging repurchase policy proposed by geometry, it has reduced consumers' doubts about purchasing pure electric vehicles to a certain extent, and also provided more imagination space for the recycling of pure electric used cars. However, unfortunately, this "escort" policy does not seem to bring significant bonus points to the new car. Judging from the current sales volume, geometric C is not booming.
The new forces of car making have different ways to play. Weilai automobile officially launched the battery as a service (battery as a service) separation mode this year. This way of "buying a car can not buy a battery, but just renting a battery" can more directly solve the problem of low value preservation rate of electric vehicles.
High battery loss is one of the important reasons for the low value maintenance rate of electric vehicles. An insider of Weilai automobile told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that at present, the battery is the single part with the highest cost for electric vehicles. At the same time, as the industry technology is still in a rapid iteration period, the depreciation rate of battery pack is higher than that of the car itself. Therefore, once the separation of vehicle and electricity is realized at both the legal and physical levels, the value preservation rate of the whole vehicle will be further improved, and it is likely to reach To the level of a fuel truck.
It should be pointed out that most of the new energy vehicles have a higher level of intelligent network connection. Therefore, the upgrading of software and hardware is also an important aspect to improve the value preservation rate of new energy vehicles. Whether the new owner can enjoy the same quality of upgrade service as the previous owner will also significantly affect the transaction price of a new energy vehicle, and these guarantees are obviously not Do not open the support of the main engine plant.