Institutional Investors Represented By Public Funds Have Become The Most Important Force Of A Shares

There has never been a time when investors have paid so much attention to the trend of mutual funds.

Since the second half of 2020, the institutions represented by the fund have "grouped" liquor and new energy sectors. In the second half of 2020, liquor index (884705. WI) rose by 94.49%; new energy index (884035. WI) rose by 65.20%.

Moreover, shortly after the start of 2021, the liquor index rose by nearly 10% and the new energy index rose by more than 7%.

The magic soaring of Baotuan stocks once made the market funds into madness and Entanglement: do you want to run away? What if you don't run away, what should you do if you don't run away? Will the fund hold more tightly to liquor and new energy sectors, or will it look for new speculators?

The 21st century economic reporter understands from many aspects that there are obvious differences in the fund industry. Some signs show that the recent fund "group stocks" seems to be loose, and even some star funds have begun to change positions.

The institutional investors represented by public funds have become the most important force of a shares. Visual China

The whole story of sand table

The institutional investors represented by public funds have become the most important force of a shares.

China Merchants Securities to continue to increase positions and hold a plate close to or more than 30% as "holding together.".

According to the 21st century economic report, similar situations have occurred four times, namely: 2007 q1-2010q1 group finance lasted 13 quarters; 2009 q3-2012q3 first consumption group lasted 13 quarters; 2013q1-2016q1 Baotuan it has lasted 13 quarters; in 2016q1 - the current second consumption group has lasted 13 quarters; however, if it is officially started from 2017q1, it has only lasted 10 quarters.

According to the chart outlined by the organization, the latest round of "group building" of institutions is starting in 2019, and the board of public funds is basically evolving along the path of "food and beverage → electronics → medicine → liquor / new energy".

From the perspective of time axis, the first half of 2019 will focus on food and beverage, the second half will focus on Electronics (semiconductor), the first half of 2020 will be Baotuan medicine, and the second half will be Baotuan liquor and new energy.

In the second half of 2020, the Baijiu index (884705. WI) of institutions has risen by 94.49%, and the new energy index (884035. WI) has risen by 65.20%.

At present, the latest data show that at the end of the third quarter of 2020, three liquor (Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao) and two new energy (Longji shares, Ningde times) were among the top ten stocks of public funds.

According to the 21st century economic report, the market value of the fund's ten major positions and fund holdings are: Guizhou Maotai 112.378 billion yuan, Wuliangye 82.218 billion yuan, Lixun precision 61.745 billion yuan, Longji shares 51.565 billion yuan, China Ping An 50.912 billion yuan, China immune 41.233 billion yuan, Midea Group 39.309 billion yuan, Mindray medical 36.740 billion yuan, Ningde times 34.603 billion yuan, Luzhou Laolao The pit is 33.262 billion yuan.

From the valuation point of view, Baotuan plate is at a historical high. A number of leading stocks, such as Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Longji shares and Ningde times, have repeatedly reached record highs, and their valuations have gradually deviated from gravity.

And in this context, recently Baotuan shares shock type fell. Previously, "Baotuan" strong rise of the white horse shares fell a large, long and short differences significantly increased, high down trend stocks continue to increase.

The market began to fall into a heated debate, and the focus of the debate is: is the institutional "Baotuan" a real fall or a false fall?

Loose "alliance"

What is worth paying attention to is that market funds are trying to find new speculators.

On the one hand, technology stocks (such as chip stocks) are on the rise, because there are more recent issuance of science and technology funds and more opportunities in large technology sectors. On the other hand, low "medium" stocks with large market value (such as China Motor Corporation) and some undervalued financial stocks also began to rise, and many undervalued stocks had abnormal intraday share prices.

Whether it is chips or Chinese characters, or financial stocks, their common characteristics are relatively low, which belongs to the understated stagflation varieties.

This actually reveals a phenomenon that funds are looking for more cost-effective varieties.

The latest position measurement of Haomai fund also shows that the position of public offering partial stock fund is generally at a historical high.

As of the week ending January 9, 2021, partial equity funds as a whole slightly reduced their positions by 0.96%, and their current positions were 66.21%. Among them, the position of stock fund decreased by 0.39%, the position of standard hybrid fund decreased by 1.04%, and the current position was 85.49% and 63.64% respectively.

The top three industries in terms of fund allocation proportion are machinery, medicine and light industry manufacturing, with allocation positions of 5.57%, 3.76% and 3.72% respectively; in the current week, the fund industry mainly increased positions in household appliances, machinery and non bank finance, with the ranges of 1.68%, 1.63% and 1.00%, respectively.

While the fund is still holding together, it is also looking for new investment directions with higher cost performance.

In particular, some star funds or have been transferred to stock.

For example, according to the public data, on January 11, the high level of institutional group stocks was adjusted, but the net value of funds managed by star fund managers such as Fu Pengbo and Xie Zhiyu did not fall but rose. In fact, the actual net value of some star funds deviated greatly from the estimated net value. According to the judgment of industry insiders, these fund managers who hold large amounts of money may have transferred their positions for shares.

"Judging from the current performance of some net worth, there is indeed a difference between the actual net value and the estimated net value of the sector star funds, which implies a certain position adjustment and stock swap operation. It may reduce the positions of some stocks with higher increase and higher valuation, and increase individual stocks with large performance expectation difference, such as high-quality stocks in some cycles and technology sectors. At present, the performance of leading companies is still relatively stable, but the valuation is high, and the short-term cost performance may change, but after volatility, investors will still buy. " Zhang Ting, chief strategist of Ge Shang financial management, said.

Some fund managers said that there was no need to worry about the dissolution of the "group". In the long run, Baima's leading stocks still had room to rise; some fund managers said that the liquor and new energy sectors had been at a historical high, and would fall in the future, which was not a good time for investment.

At present, some fund managers hold an optimistic attitude towards group stocks.

Yang Delong said, "in recent years, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been adjusted again. In particular, bailongma shares, which had a large increase in the early stage, have fallen significantly. The pressure of profit taking and overvalued value makes Baima leading stocks fall. Recently, there have been more discussions about the overvalue, and there are also great differences on the market differentiation, which leads to some leading stocks of Baima which have increased a lot and fell back and took profits

"This is a normal adjustment, not a change in trend. In the long run, white dragon horse stocks with good performance are still the core assets worth holding. After adjustment, it is a good opportunity to rise. Especially for newly issued funds, if there is an opportunity to adjust, it will build a position at a better price, which is also conducive to the further development of white dragon horse stock market. "

Options for the bottom operator

"A lot of people say that the current market of Baima shares belongs to the group market, and the group keeps warm. I think it is an inevitable trend for funds to concentrate on the head, so it is a very shortsighted point of view to understand it as a group to keep warm. A really good company has a long-term investment value, and institutional conglomeration is actually a kind of hero who thinks the same thing, that is, they highly identify with high-quality stocks. " Yang Delong said.

"Although in the short term, the valuations of these white dragon horse stocks are not cheap, the cumulative increase is relatively large, and there may be pressure of profit taking, but in the long run, their brand value, long-term stable profitability and broad growth prospects will make their valuation enjoy a relatively large premium. Therefore, it is suggested that investors can take advantage of every white dragon horse stock adjustment to copy the bottom, and tightly embrace the opportunity of white dragon horse stock to obtain long-term good returns. " Yang Delong said.

Some cautious fund managers have retreated from holding stocks.

"I've reduced my position in consumer stocks, including liquor stocks, and I've only left one because they're overvalued, so I've turned to big, undervalued financial stocks, especially insurance and real estate," said one blue chip fund manager

The fund manager of another large fund company also said that he reduced his position in new energy stocks at the end of last year, because the valuations of these stocks were too high, and he invested in some technology stocks with reasonable valuations.

In this regard, Xuanjia financial CEO Lin Jiayi said, "there are a lot of bubble stocks at present, extremely dangerous. Historically, such valuations have been maintained for a very short period of time. A-share opportunities lie in undervalued Finance (banking, insurance), real estate, and trips in the coming year that will benefit from the popularity of vaccines and economic recovery, such as the airport sector. The opportunity for Hong Kong stocks lies in the water going down from the north to the south, and the process of water flowing downward will continue. The undervalued medicine, real estate infrastructure and finance will also benefit in general. "

Ningquan assets, also known as "conscience fund manager" Yang Dong at the helm, points out that "we don't think it is a good time to invest in stocks of photovoltaic, lithium batteries and electric vehicles. Perhaps some powerful and lucky leading enterprises can resolve the valuation through time and become the real king in the end, but most of the new energy stocks that have been hyped may only be able to digest the valuation by the sharp decline of the stock price in the future.

But Zhang Ting said: "at present, there will be differentiation in group stocks, and the stocks with high valuation and limited expected range of performance improvement will face certain fluctuations. The valuations of liquor and new energy vehicle sectors are indeed at a high level. The previous views of the institutions have also been divided and the shocks have intensified. In the long run, the leading high-quality stocks in these sectors are still attractive, but the short-term performance price ratio may decline. After the fluctuation, the institutions will also track the changes in cost performance. Overall, the shock is intensified, but the downward range is relatively controllable. It is suggested that investors should reduce the overvalued and small gap of performance expectation in the short term, and choose the plate with higher safety margin for allocation. "