"Capital Catcher" Evergrande'S New Prey: Can RV Treasure Recreate The Shell Myth?

Back in 2020, "shell listing" should be one of the highlights in China's real estate industry.

Before and at the beginning of shell listing, few people could have expected that this "integrated platform for housing transactions and services" would be so popular in the capital market. After raising the issue price three times, shell officially rings the bell on August 13, 2020. The market value of shell on the first day of listing reaches 42.213 billion US dollars, and then goes up all the way. Until now, the market value of shell has reached 77.788 billion US dollars, killing many leading real estate enterprises such as "biwanheng".

This is a very powerful subversion to the high-ranking real estate enterprises. At the annual meeting of Vanke 2020, Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of Vanke, actively mentioned the Enlightenment of shell to Vanke. Shell is one of the cross industry learning objects of Vanke when the real estate industry enters the stock competition. Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande group, has gone further, and he has done a real gold and silver job in "learning shell".

On December 30, 2020, Xu Jiayin officially unveiled the brand of fangchebao group, announcing its three major departments: fangchebao national brokerage platform, fangchebao platform, and fangchebao SaaS management platform. Its business covers new house, second-hand house, new car, second-hand car transaction, as well as home decoration and car user services.

From the perspective of platform architecture and business departments, fangchebao is fully benchmarking with shell. The future journey of RV treasure is also straightforward and clear, that is, package listing, which is trillion market value. Real estate trading is a good track, there are also shell beads jade in front. But the problem is, after the shell, 58, E-House is also making efforts. In the market with numerous competitors, how does RV treasure emerge?

Counter channel

Fangche Bao became the "Pearl" of Xu Jiayin, and it was not all for the purpose of listing at the beginning. Before the completion of the ambitious goal of listing, the birth of RV treasure has realistic reasons.

The feeling of a marketing director of Evergrande city is representative: "before we come in, the channel has already occupied the market. We don't have customer resources and are passive in selling houses in small cities. When it comes to the market is not good, selling houses depends more on channels, and they still keep raising points. A calculation shows that there is basically no money to make. "

According to the 21st century economic report, the reporter learned from a number of developers and marketers that shell, for example, will price the channel fees according to different project types in different places, such as 2-3% in first tier cities, 5% in second tier cities, and 7% in third and fourth tier cities. However, it is not fixed, and it depends on each project.

The reality is that the real estate industry has returned to the ordinary industry, and the profit margin of real estate enterprises is further lower, and the profits of real estate enterprises are not as good as before. According to Yihan think tank, by the end of June 2020, the average net profit margin of eh50 real estate enterprises was 13.35%, a decrease of 3.76 percentage points compared with the same period in 2019.

In this context, high channel fees erode profits again, and no developer can stand idly by.

"I think it's too good to make money. I'm so exhausted that I only earn 10%, which is only 5% of the management fee for agent construction. If you bring me a customer from your channel, I can understand it." A head of sales at the headquarters of a top 30 real estate company told the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

It is reasonable for developers to declare war on the channel.

Vanke, country garden, poly and other leading real estate enterprises have plans to build their own channels. Vanke's "easy to choose" online platform has been frequently used in recent years; country garden has even taken a stake in intermediary agencies: on December 28, 2020, Hefu brilliantly announced that China net holding was the first to be announced Ltd. and country garden properties have completed the offer under the Hong Kong concerted action agreement. So far, country garden service has completed HK $101 million of shares in Hefu brilliant.

But obviously, Evergrande's volume is bigger than that of its peers.

Evergrande's choice of "whole army attack" may be related to its stricter requirements on profits. From the financial statements of Evergrande, its profit performance is worse than that of its peers. According to Evergrande's mid year 2020 report, by the end of June 2020, China Evergrande has achieved a gross profit of 66.68 billion yuan, with a gross profit rate of 25%; and a net profit of 14.76 billion yuan, with a net interest rate of only 5.5%, far below the average level of real estate enterprises.

Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jinghui think tank, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the current channel costs have been greatly increased. Evergrande (the practice) can understand that if it wants to quickly recover the funds, the profit margin of sales at a reduced price is very low. If such a high channel fee is paid again, the possible result is "selling one will compensate for another".

A battle with Evergrande as its main character has been launched. Its strategic priority began with large-scale editing agencies.

According to the data provided by Evergrande on December 30, 2020, fangchebao group was reorganized and established in the second half of 2020 by Evergrande and 152 intermediary agencies across the country to build a real estate and automobile online and offline Omni channel trading platform, and build the largest and strongest Internet technology service group in the world. At present, the annual transaction scale of fangchebao group is 1.2 trillion yuan, with 30635 offline stores.

Editing agency

In half a year, with 152 organizations and 30000 stores, Evergrande's offensive and defensive operations can be described as rapid and efficient.

In this brand-new field, Evergrande still uses its unique skills, such as "circle circle", "cooperation" and "buy and buy", in order to seize the market quickly through huge subsidies. However, according to the information obtained by the 21st century economic report from Beijing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and other intermediary brand owners and store owners, the conditions for the opening of RV are not tempting, and there are few intermediary agencies that can be moved.

According to the cooperation mechanism of RV stores obtained by the reporter of 21st century economic report, intermediary stores can obtain 50000-200000 listed option allocation quota, 50000-80000 yuan capital increase cash line and the maximum loan limit of 100000 yuan in five years. Among them, the store capital increase is used to invest in the development of the store, and there is no need to return it later.

A person in charge of joining in a large-scale intermediary platform pointed out that the model of RV treasure is mainly "throwing money" and "it is not particularly attractive to the general store owners. Many franchise store owners, everyone's pain point is not lack of money, it is brand and manpower. "

Hu Jinghui also analyzed and said that when choosing the platform, Diandong only considered the issue of "empowerment". From this perspective, RV treasure was "relatively empty". "First, RV is a new thing, and it has not had much brand influence at present; second, it is a very important flow, and now the largest flow is in the hands of 58 and shell; third, it does not have strong software support."

The corresponding answer can be found in the cooperation mechanism of RV treasure. "I give you money, you give me flow resources; I don't want your money, but you have to obey the management, and we will go public together," wrote Fangche Bao in the cooperation mechanism. The implication is that RV does not bring traffic to intermediary agencies, but it becomes the Reaper of traffic.

Since the money can't move the powerful store Oriental, and RV treasure has not been able to give strong energy, who is willing to unite with RV treasure?

Based on the analysis of the current holding companies and several intermediaries of fangchebao, it can be divided into the following categories: one is the strong aversion to shellfish; the other is the channel side of Evergrande, which acts as the agent of Evergrande's real estate; the other is that there are many self-employed brands, and the main brand is outside the franchise system, and the sub brands join in the "no injury, no foundation" 。

A store owner in Wuhan told the 21st century economic report that there are two voices in the market: one is to support the shell in the shell; the other is that it is a good phenomenon for us to have more platforms, so that we will not be controlled and kidnapped by the shell. The platform fee of the shell is too high, and the house change and RV treasure only collect a little symbolically, and they will choose to join in.

According to the data of qixinbao, most of the intermediary agencies currently controlled by Evergrande are concentrated in the third and fourth tier cities, such as Huizhou, Zhongshan and Yangzhou. However, in the second tier cities or provincial capitals, most of the intermediary brand owners with greater discourse power have no strong intention to join in, and even if they cooperate with fangchebao, they still have some reservation.

The case that can be provided is that Li Yun, the founder of Maya house, which has more than 1400 direct sales and franchise stores, established the brand of "housing base" in 2019. The former is an independent brand, while the latter is included in the system of RV treasure.

"These intermediaries are all" villains ". He keeps the main brand or the direct brand, and then joins the brand to cooperate with Fangche Bao. By the way, he can sell some houses of Evergrande, which does not affect the main business." Hu Jinghui pointed out.

Trillion cake

In Xu Jiayin's blueprint, the listing of Fangche Bao is a very important milestone plan.

The goal of Fangche Bao is to achieve a valuation of 2 trillion yuan in 2021, 4 trillion yuan in 2022, 6 trillion yuan in 2023, and be listed in 2024. The current valuation of Fangche Bao is 67.7 billion yuan.

This bold conjecture is not entirely groundless. Shell, China's largest "integrated platform for housing transactions and services", now has a market value of nearly $80 billion. If fangchebao expands according to the established path, the probability of success does not exist.

However, the password of shell's high market value may not be able to penetrate simply by building a simple platform and directly incorporating intermediary channels. Otherwise, I love my family, E-House and fangduo, and many other platform enterprises. In terms of market value, they will not lag behind shell too much. The fact is, there is and only one shell in this industry.

A real estate brokerage analyst who did not want to be named told the 21st century economic report that shell is a platform based Internet company. According to the Internet valuation, using PS, the valuation is high. The size of the rest of the company is not enough to be an Internet platform enterprise, and the Internet industry will generally give the first, second and other players a market share of 70:20:10, so the winner takes all and the leading valuation will be very high.

The shell barrier is more than that. Just as the thinking and sharing at the annual meeting of Vanke, the Enlightenment of shell to Vanke is that in the seemingly ordinary intermediary agency industry, it breaks the tradition, redefines the industry products with the "digital real estate dictionary", cancels the telemarketing and reshapes the industry service. Finally, it becomes a legend in the industry against the trend. The business model of shell is an important reason for many investors to cast a vote of trust.

A vice president of a securities company also believes that the reason why shell is worth being valued is that its business model and growth expectation are different from other so-called "platform" companies. Its offline stores, business model innovation and technology are the most valuable places.

In front of all kinds of barriers, can RV treasure challenge shells and become a new leader?

The opportunity for RV is that even if the shell is strong enough, the real estate transaction is still a "blue ocean" industry. According to Ren Zeping, chief economist of Evergrande, the total market value of China's real estate in 2018 is 321 trillion yuan, which is 2.4 times of that of the United States. Among them, more than 60000 billion yuan worth of residential buildings change hands every year, and 12-13 trillion yuan of new houses are sold. In addition, rental housing is a big market with a turnover of 25 trillion yuan a year.

Shell in this market, although other brands in the "monopoly" position, its market share is less than a quarter. According to the data of CITIC, in 2019, the market share of shell in the second-hand housing market and the new housing market (GTV caliber) are 19.4% and 5.4% respectively, which may be the fortress of RV treasure.

A number of intermediary brand owners and store owners believe that the key to RVB's market share is not the rapid recruitment of intermediaries, but whether it can provide better service experience and better employees. "If we can reshape the channel from the perspective of service experience, it is also possible to (stand out)."

But even if Evergrande can improve the overall perception of the industry, its market space may not be very large. Under the grand blueprint of Evergrande RV, other real estate enterprises have begun to fear.

A marketing person of top3 real estate enterprises told the 21st century economic report, "of course not (with the RV treasure), the real estate companies will have exclusive channels, and will not use other channels."

"As long as you have a developer background, you go to work as an intermediary and sell your own new house. But if you sell other cars, they will not cooperate with you. If you want to sell someone else's house, it will be difficult from the source. This is the problem that any intermediary company with developer background will encounter. " Hu Jinghui pointed out.

This is the shackles of RV expansion. Although fangchebao intends to build an open platform, it is still the world of Evergrande housing resources.

For the intermediary agencies with the purpose of promoting transaction, RV treasure needs to prove its carrying capacity, not just a booth.