After Steady Fall In Prices, Stabilizing Markets Are Concerned About The Progress Of Sino US Negotiations.

Last week (August 5-9), the futures market continued to digest the bad news that the United States imposed 10% tariffs on the remaining 300 billion products of China. Last Monday, most of the contracts on Zheng cotton were down, and then gradually stabilized after Tuesday's inertia. Cotton prices dropped sharply and orders were insufficient for two-way extrusion. Cotton mill sales were difficult, prices fell, inventories increased, demand for raw materials decreased, and procurement decreased. Spot trading is light, and spot prices are generally low, with little turnover. Trading volume and price dropped. Cotton price cncottonB index 13629 yuan / ton, weekly fell 411 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF1909 contract, spot premium 1454 yuan / ton, week expanded 84 yuan / ton.

Futures. As the September delivery approached, the funds were gradually shifted to the January contract, and the September contract was double cut. CF2001 has become the main contract. Last week, it closed at 12720 yuan / ton, the week fell 560 yuan / ton, the week traded 1231612 hands, increased 552868 hand, increased 81.5%, holds 423110 hands, the week increased 108680 hands, the increase 34.6%. By the end of August 9th, the top 20 seats in the positions were more than 265855 hands, increased 13067 hands, empty 314064, increased 13367 hands, the funds showed an inflow state, 48209 hands, 300 hands, 1352 hands to maintain the warehouse, 400 hands, sell the insurance policy 48827 hand, reduce the 40 hand; registered warehouse receipts 40, the mainland accounted for the majority, reduce the number of Zhang Zhang, continue to reduce; warehouse receipts effective forecast, Zhang Zhang, continue to increase, and all in the mainland bank, the new cotton market is approaching, Xinjiang cotton store sales force increased. Sino US negotiations can continue to be uncertain, exacerbated the concerns of the market. This week, the reserve cotton liner lowered its base price by 547 yuan / ton, and the futures market of the bearish futures, the new cotton growth is good, and the listing is approaching.

US market: the Sino US trade war has escalated, the output of new cotton has increased in advance, the global consumption has been sluggish, and the US disk volume has dropped to a new low of three years. The main contract in December closed at 58.84 cents / pound on Friday, and fell 57 points in the week, and the new low 57.26 cents / pound in the market. The technology and fundamentals are in bad shape, and the shock consolidation is waiting for news guidance. It continues to pay attention to the progress of Sino US trade negotiations and the weather information in cotton fields.

On the spot. Prices continued to fall, after orders were inadequate, cotton yarn sales difficulties, high inventory, cotton mills limited production to inventory, confidence, cash shortage, reduced procurement, cotton mill cotton to maintain low inventory, market procurement mainly based on rigid demand, point price hanging less, low points, less transactions, the price of a single price futures decreased significantly, the transaction was limited. Trading volume and average transaction price declined sharply. The "double 29" machine is priced at 13200-13500 yuan / ton, and the "double 28" hand picking cotton price is quoted at 13000-13300 yuan / ton. Customs clearance of imported West Africa and India cotton prices are 13200-13500 yuan / ton, lack of price advantage, resource continuity is not stable, goods are generally in general, Brazil cotton is large, and the price is slightly lower than that of Xinjiang cotton. Australia cotton with the quality of different quotations 15500-16500 yuan / ton, there are relatively fixed consumer groups.

Operation suggestion. The supply of goods is abundant and the price is decreasing. There is uncertainty in the negotiations on the Sino US trade war, the consumption is obviously reduced, the new cotton production is on the increase, and the supply and demand fundamentals are bad. After the fall, there is a rebound in technology and concerns about the cotton weather and the progress of Sino US negotiations.

Extended reading

Summary of the current price double fall, lack of confidence in Enterprises

Last week (August 2-8), the cotton market continued to be weak, and the downstream purchasing intention was not strong. The losses in the textile industry continued to increase and market confidence was insufficient.

Last week, the cotton spot market continued to be weak. Under the influence of futures declines, the spot market was dominated by overcast and drop. Some manufacturers reflect that buyers' intentions are relatively poor recently, and the overall shipment is slow. A Hunan businessman has 3129 hands to pick up Henan cotton warehouse and offer a price of 13000 yuan / ton. The basic point price resources are generally carried out, and some of the high resource base of mixed parts is between -100 and -200 yuan / ton. In Sichuan, cotton spot hand picked cotton is about 13500 yuan / ton, sent to Xinjiang cotton 13000 yuan / ton, real estate cotton 12200-12400 yuan / ton to deliver, according to the quality of the price.

Last week, polyester raw materials PTA and MEG once again entered the downtrend, downstream demand fell again, polyester staple fiber also showed weakness. This week, Sinopec's Sinopec short sale price of 7800 yuan / ton, Sichuan chemical fiber and polyester short price of 6600-6800 yuan / ton.

At present, the losses in the textile industry continue to increase, the international situation is uncertain, business confidence is impaired, inventories continue to increase, and inventory speed is relatively slow, and some textile enterprises have entered the holiday mode. Recently, most of the provinces in China suffered heavy rains and some areas were affected. The normal operation of enterprises was affected.