Weekly Operation Of Sino US Trade And Cotton Textile Market (3.16-3.22)

I. recovery of production

In the third week of March, 96.1% of the cotton textile enterprises surveyed had already started work, and the number of workers who had resumed work accounted for 91% of the total number of workers in normal production. The recent recovery of enterprises' production was shown in Figure 1, and the situation of production recovery was further improved, and the situation of commencement of enterprises and the situation of staff arrival continued to improve.

　　 Note 1: the data are mainly based on large enterprises, and the enterprises' starting rate is expected to be higher than the actual situation. Because the weekly survey of enterprises will be different, the results are for reference only.

From the perspective of capacity utilization, 65.41% of the enterprises can achieve more than 80% capacity utilization, 6.1 percentage points higher than last week; 91.73% of the enterprises have more than 50% capacity utilization, which is 11.2 percentage points higher than that of last week, and the production of enterprises is further recovered. Less than 30% of capacity utilization and enterprises that have not yet resumed work have dropped by 8.3 percentage points from last week, mainly in Hubei.

　　 Two, industrial cluster production recovery situation

Since the end of 2, China Cotton Association has conducted a follow-up investigation on the start up of 20 cotton textile industrial clusters. As of March 20th, according to the information provided by the investigation office and other departments, the total number of enterprises involved was about 5000, mainly in small and medium enterprises. Among them, the proportion of enterprises below the scale accounted for 74% of the total number of enterprises, the total scale of spinning and weaving was about 29 million spindles, 120 thousand units, and the total number of workers was about 31 million. As shown in Table 2, the start up rate, capacity utilization rate and average staff arrival rate of cluster enterprises continue to rise.

　　 Compared with last week, the start up of cotton textile cluster enterprises mainly presented the following characteristics:

(1) the average operating rate of clustered enterprises is around 72%, up 10 percentage points from last week. 85% of the enterprises in the cluster started to operate at more than 60%, and the rate of business startup was higher than that of the regulated enterprises, which were 87% and 57% respectively. Among them, the cluster enterprises in Hubei started to start in the first half of 3.

(2) from the situation of personnel to posts, the average rate of entry to enterprises in cluster enterprises is around 65%, up 4 percentage points from last week. The rate of return to employees is relatively slow, which can not meet the start-up needs of enterprises. Some clusters indicate that the current shortage of labor directly affects the order of enterprises.

Three. Revenue and investment

The questionnaire also investigated the impact of the company's revenue and the pace of investment planning.

Since late February, the shortage of orders is one of the problems that cotton textile enterprises reflect more. From the third week survey results, by the middle of March, the situation of domestic sales has improved, as shown in Figure 2. The proportion of orders returned to normal level of more than 80% accounted for 47.7%, and 86.5% of the enterprises' orders had been restored to more than half. Among them, the enterprises whose products were exported were affected by the global epidemic situation, the export orders decreased significantly, and 47% of the enterprises' export orders were less than half of the normal level. In addition, it is also known that the downturn in corporate investment is slightly better than that in the previous month. At the present stage, in the cotton textile enterprises in which the fixed asset investment projects are going on, some of the enterprises that have been postponed before construction begin to restart the project. The third weeks choose the enterprises that continue to build up to 1.5 times as long as the enterprises that are holding up the construction.

　　 In the questionnaire survey, cotton textile enterprises predicted the sales revenue and export situation in the first quarter of 2020 respectively. The enterprises thought that the sales revenue and export volume in the first quarter were less than 50% compared with the same period last year, as shown in Table 3. There were some changes in the results of the third week and second weeks' forecast. The enterprises surveyed believe that the proportion of sales and exports in the first quarter will be reduced by more than 20% compared with the same period last year. The proportion decreased by 6 and 10.6 percentage points respectively. This shows that the market confidence of the cotton textile industry is still recovering from last week.

　　 Cotton textile enterprises also predicted the sales revenue and export situation in the first half of 2020. As can be seen from Figure 3, most enterprises believe that the negative impact of the epidemic on the sales and export situation of cotton textile industry is slowly being eliminated as the epidemic situation gradually relieved, the production of enterprises returned to normal track and the market vitality recovered, and the impact of sales revenue and export situation in the first half of this year will be controlled within 20%.

　　 In the third week of March, the epidemic spread rapidly all over the world. European and American countries took the measures of "sealing the country", which caused many European and American orders to be "cancelled". This will bring a heavy blow to our cotton textile industry just after easing up. It is expected that the global epidemic will be affected for 3-4 months, and the foreign trade enterprises will be faced with 4-6 months' difficult period. Expected next week's survey results, the export orders and export forecast will fall again.

Four, industrial chain situation

In the third week of March, 97% of the enterprises involved in the textile and garment industry started work. The number of workers who had resumed work accounted for 91% of the total number of workers in normal production, which increased by 2.1 and 7 percentage points respectively compared with last week. Cotton textile downstream industry production recovery continues to improve, industrial chain synergy has improved.

1. Supply of upstream raw materials for cotton spinning

Cotton, according to the China Cotton Association statistics, in February, affected by the epidemic, cotton processing enterprises in most parts of the country suspended their jobs. The average purchasing price of grade 3128 seed cotton in the 400 cotton processing enterprises in China is 5.47 yuan / kg, down 19.79% compared with the same period last year, and the total cotton processing is about 5 million 151 thousand and 500 tons, down 2.20% from the same period last year. Among them, some cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang resumed work in mid and late 2 months, and the market panic was heavier. The cotton processing enterprises in the mainland were relatively low in recovery rate and more cautious. In late March, the epidemic spread around the world, and cotton prices fell sharply.

In terms of non cotton fiber, the survey shows that the operating rate of chemical fiber enterprises is above 95%, and the utilization rate of capacity is mostly above 70%. The supply of products is more abundant and the price is relatively stable, which can meet the demand of cotton textile enterprises for non cotton fibers.

2. Downstream operation of cotton textile

According to the investigation of China's printing and dyeing industry association, by the end of February, the two major printing and dyeing industrial agglomeration areas in Keqiao, Zhejiang and Fujian, Shaoxing, have basically achieved full recovery. According to the survey data of the China Textile Federation industrial cluster office, the proportion of the 10 enterprises with 55 thousand complete garment and home textile industrial clusters in Dongguan, Nantong, Changshu and Haining has reached 71.5%, which is 11.8 percentage points higher than the previous week's survey. The industry industry is increasing its horsepower production masks, protective clothing and other medical protective products for domestic supply and export, and many other enterprises in the industrial chain are also joining it. The global epidemic has a great impact on the textile export orders, especially for the knitting industry with a larger proportion of exports.

3. Reopening of circulation links

Domestic transportation and transportation resumed rapidly, and the resumption of professional markets continued to accelerate. According to the survey data of the 101 major textile and garment market in China in March 17th, the recycling market has reached 99, and the market opening rate of monomer market has increased by 11.9 percentage points compared with the previous week's survey. The number of commercial shops has been 91 thousand, accounting for 63.7% of the total number of shops in the normal market, which is 12.9 percentage points higher than that of a week ago. The functions are being restored orderly.

Five, online feedback

Since February 14th, the China Cotton Association has launched the epidemic prevention and control platform and the online production service platform (the "online information"). As of March 20th, it has received more than 170 Pieces of information from more than 130 enterprises, and cotton textile enterprises are facing major changes in the situation as shown in figure 4. Compared with the second week in March, third weeks, the situation of personnel arrival and transportation of raw materials and materials, and the operation of upstream and downstream businesses were all improved, and production and operation continued to recover.

　　 On the basis of understanding the main problems faced by enterprises, the third weeks also carried out a directional understanding of several aspects of the enterprise's concern. The main situations are as follows:

1, compared with the previous weeks, the most obvious change in the third weeks received is that the cotton textile enterprises in Hubei began to participate in feedback gradually. As the epidemic situation in Hubei also tends to zero growth, the textile enterprises in Hubei have resumed their schedule. Many enterprises are expected to resume their work in the first four weeks of March.

2, with nearly two months of production and marketing stagnation, the market should have ushered in a period of hunger and rebound. But this week, the global outbreak, the international social and economic development stagnated, the pessimism spread to the various trade areas, the US stock continued to fash four times, the global stock market fell, and the panic in the commodity market intensified. 。 In view of the difficult period that foreign trade enterprises are going to face, there are some suggestions that enterprises can introduce relevant policies to help enterprises tide over difficulties.

3, with the acceleration of the global epidemic worsening, especially since the beginning of this week, the number of confirmed and fatal deaths in non China areas has exceeded China. Some companies worry that the anti US forces outside the US are not self monitoring for their own prevention and control. Instead, they are forced to name the new crown pneumonia "China pneumonia" when they are not clear about the source of the virus infection, and they are angry with China. The tone shows that about 1/3 of the votes support the United States to retaliate against China, followed by various irrational measures to sanction the possibility of China's economy.

China Cotton Association will continue to pay attention to the trend of epidemic prevention and control and the actual production and operation of enterprises, timely summarize and feedback to the relevant departments of China Textile Corporation, conscientiously fulfill the responsibilities of China Cotton Trade Association, do well in the industry information early-warning and analysis work, and ensure the smooth operation of the industry in a special period.