On The Eve Of 5G Outbreak: Accelerating The Landing Of Industrial Chain And Exploring Scale Commercialization

In Huawei Dongguan Industrial Park, there is a special base station training base. New employees of Huawei need to be baptized by the base station to understand the foundation of Huawei. 5g base stations have been installed in the training base as early as possible. When 21st century economic news reporters visited, Huawei R & D personnel stressed that Huawei 5g base stations are shipped every day, and many customers will come to visit the base.

In 2019, the crackdown from the United States did not have a great impact on Huawei's 5g business, and the domestic 5g market did not stop because of friction. The domestic 5g industry chain companies represented by Huawei have made rapid progress in this year. Driven by policies, enterprises are speeding up their fast running.

On December 26, Wang Zhiqin, vice president of the China Institute of information and communications, introduced the latest progress of 5g. He said that by the end of 2019, the number of signed users of 5g package in China will exceed 3 million, and the number of base stations will also achieve the development goal of 130000. By the end of 2019, the number of 5g users worldwide is expected to reach 10 million.

In this intergenerational iteration of communication, China has deeply participated in the standard formulation and is in a leading position. In the next 5g led paradigm change, China also has a huge market for large-scale business. After the first commercial year of 2019, 2020 will be the key node of large-scale 5g construction.

At present, everyone is waiting for the completion of a large-scale base station, waiting for the C-end and b-end application scenarios. Five years ago, we couldn't even believe that mobile payment would be so embedded in everyday life. We still can't imagine the qualitative change brought about by 5g's integration of AI, cloud computing and blockchain in 2-3 years.

Attacking 2019

Globally, 32 countries and regions have achieved 5g commercial applications, and 60 networks have been put into commercial use. The most concerned countries are the United States, South Korea and China. Wang Zhiqin said that there are more than 200 terminals in the world and more than 1 million base stations are shipped.

Among them, South Korea and the United States took the lead in commercial use. Although the United States took the lead, it fell into the storm of "true and false 5g", with a small number of base stations. South Korea has made rapid progress. At present, 5g users have exceeded 3 million, becoming a global benchmark.

The Chinese market is also developing rapidly. On June 6, 2019, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued 5g business licenses to China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Radio and television. According to the plan, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom will build 50000, 40000 and 40000 5g base stations respectively in 2019. On September 9, China Unicom and China Telecom officially announced the joint construction of 5g network. By December 2019, the number of shared base stations opened by both sides has exceeded 27000.

In the name of "China Radio and television", the 5g trial network of radio and television will carry out network construction and business test in various places. The construction of the test network will be implemented in 2019 and the scale construction will be started in 2020. A total of 16 pilot cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were set up in the first batch, with an investment of 2.49 billion yuan.

On October 31, 2019, at the China International Information and Communication Exhibition, the three major operators officially opened 5g business, and announced 5g business packages on the same day, with the charges of the three operators no less than 128 yuan per month.

Along with it are the important players in the industry chain. In addition to operators, there are also equipment manufacturers, terminal manufacturers, chip manufacturers, module manufacturers and so on.

Taking Huawei as an example, the data shows that the delivery volume of 5g base station modules of Huawei has increased by 300% since May 2019, from 100000 in May to 400000 at the end of October. In 2020, there will be hundreds of thousands of base stations in China and millions in the world.

"Huawei has always advocated multi-path, multi echelon, saturated attack and saturated investment. Once a direction is identified, it will focus on solving the problems of commercial products." Gan bin, vice president of Huawei's 5g product line, said in an interview with 21st century economic reporter.

He also said that when it comes to 4G, Huawei first provided macro stations, while it took three years for micro stations and small stations to provide comprehensive services. However, in the 5g era, Huawei has provided a full range of 5g macro pole micro stereo networking solutions in 2019, including macro station, pole station and indoor digitization.

Mobile terminal manufacturers have also been blocked ahead of time. Since August 2019, Huawei, glory, Samsung, Xiaomi, oppo, vivo and other enterprises have begun to release 5g mobile phones. At present, there are about 20 5g mobile phone models in the domestic market. According to the monthly data released by the China Academy of communications and communications, China's 5g mobile phone shipments showed an exponential rise, with 220000 in August and 5.07 million in November. According to this trend, the total number is expected to exceed 10 million by the end of the year.

In the 5g era, mobile phone manufacturers have not only owned mobile phones, but also expanded their products to all aspects of smart life, from home products to wearable, and then to 5g CPE. Around the concept of 5g, terminal companies are building their own industrial chain ecology.

It is worth noting that the pace of chip manufacturers is also accelerating in 2019. Huawei, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung have all released 5g oriented chip platforms, and the solutions for integrating 5g baseband and and external 5g baseband have been released. Besides Huawei, the cooperation between other chip manufacturers and domestic handset companies is more in-depth than ever.

By 2020, a new round of industrial reshuffle and upgrading of infrastructure will be opened, from the competition of multi powerful chips, to the 5g differentiated competition of mobile phones, and to the large-scale laying of 5g base stations.

Waiting for the opening year

If 2019 is the enlightenment year of 5g landing, then 2020 will be the start year of 5g.

The first is the construction of large-scale 5g base stations. According to the prediction of Tianfeng securities, 530000 base stations are expected to be built in China in 2020.

Take Zhejiang as an example, an operator insider told the 21st century economic report: "in Zhejiang, China Mobile is expected to build 30000 base stations in 2020, and China Unicom and telecom may be about 20000." Compared with the data of thousands of seats in 2019, it has at least doubled.

He said: "at present, we are still planning to optimize the base station construction with China Unicom. At the same time, we are still planning to optimize the base station construction with China Unicom. The optimized network generally includes rate, coverage, CQI, handover success rate, attachment success rate, and coverage effect of some scenes

For example, in terms of speed, a single station can achieve the ideal rate, but if it is in the mobile state, it needs to be optimized, which is much more complex than 4G optimization. On the one hand, 5g technology is still constantly updated, on the other hand, 5g parameters are more complex.

In the process of expanding the coverage of base stations and optimizing the network, the user experience brought by 5g will also be improved.

From construction to optimization, huge investment is needed. An equipment manufacturer told the 21st century economic report that in 2018, China Mobile's base station electricity bill will be as high as 25 billion yuan. They once estimated that the electricity bill after 5g will be as high as 50 billion yuan, but equipment manufacturers are trying to reduce power consumption.

As a result, the industry has focused on return on investment and business prospects for the past year.

On the one hand, operators still maintain a cautious attitude to invest, and many people in the industry are also discussing the introduction of corporate capital and other ways. On the other hand, we are looking forward to the implementation of industry and application, bringing new business model.

From the perspective of the current 5g application implementation, according to the survey conducted by the China Academy of communications and communications, as of the end of September 2019, a total of 391 application tests have been conducted or will be carried out by 135 operators worldwide, of which 57.8% are embB applications. AR / VR, HD video transmission and fixed wireless access are the three most tested applications.

In the future, with the 5g standard becoming more comprehensive, industrial Internet, Internet of vehicles, smart home and so on are promising 5g business scenarios in the industry, and they are still in small-scale practice.

On the whole, 5g is developing steadily. 5g is not only a high-tech industry, but also a basic industry, driven by the policy dividend, followed by the industrial chain, and rich in terminal products and scenarios. In 2020, it is believed that 5g reform in the industry is going on quietly.

According to the calculation of China Institute of information and communication, it is estimated that 5g will boost China's digital economic growth by 15.2 trillion from 2020 to 2025, which will also bring a long-awaited new economic growth point for the society.