Three Rare Earth Giants Join Hands To "Enlarge The Recruitment" Industry Pattern To Change?
On the evening of September 23, Minmetals and rare earth (000831. SZ) announced that after receiving the notice from China Minmetals, Chalco, Minmetals and Ganzhou Municipal People's government are planning a strategic restructuring of related rare earth assets. The relevant scheme has not been finalized yet, and it needs to be approved by the relevant authorities.
Affected by this, Minmetals closed at 49.62 yuan / share, up 10%, with a turnover of 6.716 billion yuan. According to the data of China Rare Earth Industry Association, the rare earth price index on September 24 was 252.1 points, almost double the 129.5 points on May 6 last year.
Or forming two major rare earth groups in North and south
With the announcement of Minmetals rare earth, the rare earth industry is about to usher in a great change.
Data shows that in the early stage, China's rare earth industry was rampant, resulting in serious environmental pollution and mismatching between output and profit. In 2019, the Ministry of industry and information technology took the lead and formed the "5 + 1" six rare earth patterns in the north and the south, representing six enterprises with mining and smelting rare earth mineral rights. The government uniformly distributes the rare earth ore supply index every year, with strong supply rigidity.
The Research Report of Guojin Securities pointed out that China is a country with large reserves of rare earth resources in the world. It is not only rich in reserves, but also has the advantages of complete mineral types and rare earth elements, high rare earth grade and reasonable distribution of mineral occurrences. 98% of China's total rare earth resources are distributed in Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, Shandong and other regions, with the distribution characteristics of light in the north and heavy in the south.
At present, China's total rare earth control index is divided into light and light rare earth resources for management and control, and has formed an industry development pattern dominated by Baotou Steel Group, China Minmetals, Chalco, Guangdong rare earth, Ganzhou rare earth and Xiamen tungsten industry. Among them, there is only one light rare earth in the north, and the others are heavy rare earth.
It is understood that at the beginning of 2014, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, held a special meeting in Beijing on the establishment of large rare earth enterprise groups, and said that it would focus on supporting the above six enterprises to take the lead in further promoting merger and reorganization and establishing large rare earth enterprise groups.
Du shuaibing, a senior rare earth analyst at Baichuan information, told the 21st century economic report that "after the merger, northern rare earth is still an independent company. Chinalco, China Minmetals and Ganzhou rare earth are all under the SASAC, so it is better to merge them into a new central enterprise first."
As for the future development of Xiamen tungsten industry and Guangdong rare earth, Du shuaibing believes that the two listed companies have more shareholders. Although they are also state-owned enterprises, their shares are relatively chaotic and may be merged in the future. "There may be two major rare earth groups in the future, namely northern rare earth group and southern rare earth group."
Rare earth price is expected to bid farewell to the sharp rise and fall
"The merger of the two groups will at least prevent a substantial increase in oversupply," said the analyst.
According to Hua'an Securities Research Report, the rare earth industry has gone out of four waves in the past decade, but the fluctuation range is large, the duration is short, and the longest wave is less than one year, and the market is basically driven by supply.
The above-mentioned research report shows that China has rich rare earth resources, but in the early years, rare earth mining was relatively blind, the disorderly competition of many rare earth processing enterprises made the export price of rare earth very low, rare earth could only be sold at the price of "Earth", and China's precious rare earth resources were largely consumed.
According to frost Sullivan's data, in 2020, the global output of rare earth permanent magnets will reach 217400 tons, and that of China will reach 196200 tons, accounting for 90.25%; In 2025, the global output of rare earth permanent magnets is expected to reach 310200 tons, and that of China will reach 284200 tons.
In order to protect China's rare earth resources and regulate the rare earth market, China implemented the quota control of total rare earth mining in 2006; In 2007, rare earth production has been included in the planned management, and the production units beyond the target range are not allowed to mine and smelt rare earth.
After the implementation of the total rare earth mining index control, the domestic rare earth production has been controlled, and the industry has been increasingly standardized.
The above-mentioned analysts said that in the past few years, there has been a problem of overcapacity and oversupply of rare earth in China. In recent years, with the rapid increase in demand for new energy vehicles, consumer electronics and other fields, the relative balance between supply and demand has supported the current price of rare earth. It is difficult to reproduce the market volatility of the past.
It is reported that since May 2020, rare earth has once again stepped out of the new market. Unlike before, this market has lasted for more than a year. Moreover, at present, the leading force of rare earth industry has undergone a fundamental change. The situation of supply led in the past has been reversed, and the substantial increase in demand for new energy has become the main logic.
Enterprise survey data show that, since 2011, China's rare earth enterprises registered a fluctuating growth. In 2020, the number of registered companies will increase in a blowout manner, with a total of 5850 registered companies, with a year-on-year increase of 127%. In the first half of 2021, 4320 enterprises will be added, with a year-on-year increase of 102%.
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