When we visited the market at the end of last year, the words "the worst year in the market" have been mentioned in the boss's mouth. Most of them hold an optimistic attitude towards the new year.
After all, the 2019 market is bad enough, and the new year should rebound.
But in the early part of 2020, a sudden outbreak seemed to have broken everything. When the vacation time is extended, the enterprises can not take orders. When the factory finally returns to work, the epidemic situation is gradually controlled, and the textile people are ready to show their talents, the epidemic situation is spreading abroad, and the market improvement has become a long way off.
How is this year's market? Compared with last year's "winter of textile industry", cloth owners may have a more intuitive feeling.
The peak season is not Wang Bu Wang, but is there?
The time has come to the end of three. March and April is the traditional peak season for the first half of the textile industry. It has always been called "gold, three, silver and four".
However, last year's "gold three silver four" made the textile industry lose its hope. Because of the impact of Sino US trade and overcapacity, the whole peak season lasted only 4 months in the middle and last half of the month, which was half a month earlier than in previous years. This is the beginning of high inventory for weaving enterprises.
However, the market in the first half of this year did not seem to be as good as last year. With the continuous spread of the epidemic abroad, not only the orders of the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea had been greatly affected, but also the foreign trade enterprises received the notice of cancellation.
Judging from the current situation, foreign trade orders will not be expected for a while. The only thing we can count on is domestic trade. But from the total point of view, the drop in orders is almost inevitable. The peak season in the first half of the year is almost impossible.
Inventory is hard to go, and the cash flow of weaving enterprises is deteriorating further.
Last year, because of the excessive inventory of weaving enterprises, too many cash flows had taken place, resulting in frequent market dumping and goods rejection, which suppressed the price of cloth.
But if we turn the clock back to the first half of the year, except a part of the textile enterprises investing in the outlying areas, after experiencing the "explosion" market in 2018, the cash flow of most enterprises is relatively healthy.
This year, on the contrary, after the resumption of work, the orders accumulated last year only made the market hot for a week or so. In the case of high inventory, the cash flow of weaving enterprises is far behind that of the same period last year.
The epidemic is spreading, and market confidence is generally insufficient.
Market confidence seems to be illusory, but for an industry, the impact can be said to be decisive.
Market confidence is determined by past market and expectations, but from these two aspects, the textile industry will still be dominated by bad profits in the future.
From the past, in late 2019 and early 2020, under the influence of overcapacity and domestic epidemic situation, the inventory of textile enterprises was high and the number of orders fell significantly. Textile people placed their hopes on the rebound of orders brought about by the domestic epidemic control.
But contrary to expectations, the textile market in the future is also not optimistic. Recently, many foreign orders of cloth owners have encountered the situation of withdrawal of orders. With the outbreak of foreign epidemic, orders are postponed, and orders have become more frequent.
Under such circumstances, market confidence has been severely hit, and the chamber of Commerce has gradually lost the power to purchase and store goods.
Crude oil avalanche, polyester prices plummet
For weaving enterprises, the expected trend of raw material prices largely determines their strategy of purchasing raw materials.
Since the start of 2019, because of the hot textile market in 2018, textile workers have sufficient funds on hand, plus the law of raw material price rise after the beginning of the past years, which makes textile people have a bullish trend towards raw material prices.
This year, on the contrary, because polyester stocks are high, the price of polyester has fallen all the time since the beginning of the year. Recently, with Saudi Arabia opening the price war of crude oil and the avalanche of international oil prices all the way, it has further aggravated the market sentiment of empty polyester.
When Xiaobian talked with cloth boss, some cloth owners also said that raw materials were "copied at the bottom of the mountain", so in the short term, they would not consider the matter of buying raw materials on a large scale.
The loom is not yet full, so we must consider shutting down the production.
At this time of the year, weaving enterprises came to the peak of stocking, looms were almost full, and some enterprises that were not fully booked were also troubled by the difficulty of recruitment.
This year, affected by the epidemic, the rate of weaving starts to pick up more slowly. However, because of the frequent foreign trade withdrawal, many cloth owners have said that once the situation continues, under the influence of high inventory, the loom rate will be reduced in the future.
Once the start-up rate is lowered, both upstream polyester raw materials and downstream dyeing and finishing industry will be seriously affected.
Demand has shrunk, overcapacity has intensified.
The transfer of water jet looms from the Yangtze River Delta to the surrounding areas resulted in over production of water jet looms, which is one of the main reasons for the downturn of the textile industry in 2019.
In 2020, the theoretical productivity of water jet looms even exceeded that of 2019. But on demand, with the outbreak of fermentation, this year's foreign trade situation can no longer be described as "grim". In domestic trade, however, because of the restricted income source, residents' disposable income has become smaller and their willingness to consume has also decreased.
Under such circumstances, excess capacity this year will almost certainly exceed last year.