With the intensification of the new crown epidemic overseas, many countries have taken measures such as city closures and restricted travel, and the consumption of textile and clothing has been greatly curbed. In the first half of March, a large number of clothing stores in Europe and the United States ceased to be open to the outside world. Almost all clothing companies, clothing department stores and clothing electric business companies' share prices were cut short, and a large number of companies' shares fell below net assets. China is the largest exporter of textiles and clothing in the world. Although domestic production has basically recovered, the demand for export has been broken down.
1, raw materials procurement halted
Since March, there has been a rare drop in cotton and chemical fiber. Because of the oil slump, chemical fiber and viscose raw materials started earlier than cotton. The price of 1.4D direct spun polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has fallen below 6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream newspaper is 5900 yuan / ton, and the individual is as low as 5800 yuan / ton, and there is no more than 6000 yuan / ton trading. Since March, PET staple has fallen by nearly 1400 yuan / ton. Viscose staple fiber relatively small decline, viscose staple fiber at present in the price of 9200 yuan / ton line, compared to the previous week fell 500 yuan / ton, since March, the total fell nearly 1000 yuan / ton. As for cotton, since March 9th, Zheng cotton has been down 3 times, the low point has broken 10000 yuan / ton mark, and just 20 Yu Tian has fallen nearly 3000 yuan / ton. Although there has been a rebound in the past two days, there is no clear expectation for the future market.
Under the collapse, raw material inventory of textile mills has formed a large invisible loss. At present, most manufacturers have stopped purchasing raw materials, and when to start will depend on market conditions, which is also a serious blow to cotton traders.
2, the lack of orders, textile enterprises dilemma
At present, the export orders for textile and clothing have been impacted, domestic demand has not yet been restored, new orders of downstream textile enterprises are seriously scarce, and it is difficult to change in the short term, which makes textile enterprises operating under tremendous pressure. According to the textile mill, many enterprises have to turn their exports to domestic sales, resulting in a smaller market cake this year than last year. Some cotton mills sell stocks substantially for inventory, but expect cash settlement to reduce risks. Nevertheless, at present, the outer sheet of grey fabric and fabric is ushering in the cancellation of the order and the tide of breaking the contract. There is no need to purchase the raw materials of the upstream yarn, and the stock of the cotton mill is still accumulating. If production continues to accumulate, the enterprise will be more affordable. If the work is stopped, the enterprise will also suffer a heavy downtime loss. As a result, some companies with high operating rates have plans to slow down the rate of start-up. If the market continues to fail, I am afraid a number of enterprises will be able to escape bankruptcy. It is reported that the cash flow has broken down, and the owner of the small factory has disappeared, or is willing to use the equipment to offset it.
3, imported yarn stocks high, shipless
According to some imported yarn traders, the current import yarn stock is high, close to the historical record. Qingdao port import yarn stock transfer volume is generally 1-2 tons, and now about 4-6 tons, other such as Lanxi also appeared in the warehouse. March and April is the traditional peak season for textile industry. Most traders take orders after the holidays. However, the sudden Black Swan makes the goods in hand turn from "fragrant cakes" to "hot potato". Traders suffered losses on the whole, with a loss margin of less than 1000 yuan / ton, and more than 2000 yuan / ton. In this case, there are also many buyer's breach of contract, or the seller is not required to deliver the goods. India's "sealing order" is the right time for them.
India has been closed for 21 days since March 25th, and most ports have stopped shipment. Only a few ports need to be applied before they can be shipped. But because there is little demand, the port is also deserted. The government of India has called on enterprises to take a vacation, but there has been no mandatory downtime. However, due to the stagnation of downstream demand, many factories in India have been on holiday since last week. The current operating rate is less than half, and the follow-up may be lower.
In short, this year is bound to be a big test for the whole industry chain. As HUAWEI Ren Zhengfei said, the highest business objective of the company is to survive this year. With the gradual return of domestic production, the improvement of domestic demand is positive. In recent two days, the rebound of cotton futures has also made us see a slight improvement in the market. I believe that the epidemic will pass away. There will be a rainbow after the storm. Any crisis is an organic whole. Maybe after this upheaval, the enterprises that survive will be able to stand more steadily in the market.