PTA Weekly Review: Facing Adjustment Demand &Nbsp; PTA Shock Drop
PTA weekly commentary of China Securities Journal (February 9th - February 11th)
Last week, Zhengzhou
Futures are down.
Among them, the main contract 1105 opened 12098 yuan / ton, the highest 12296 yuan / ton, the lowest 11902 yuan / ton, closing 12064 yuan / ton, down 34 yuan or 0.28%.
High cotton prices and high PX support for PTA remain, but because the central bank may continue to tighten monetary policy and the lower price of polyester factories will decline, but tight supply pattern changes, the terminal textile enterprises after the recruitment difficulties, the operating rate remained low, the short-term price of PTA is facing upward pressure, but the callback will not be too large.
New York commercial Futures Exchange (NYMEX) March crude oil contract settlement price fell 10 U.S. dollars 0.02 or 0.03%, at $86.73 a barrel.
US government data showed that the number of unemployed Jin people fell to two-and-a-half lows last week to boost the market.
Rumor has it that king Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has passed away, but later denied that crude oil has fallen.
Egyptian military and ruling party officials said Mubarak will soon address the country and meet the demands of the demonstrators, and the military hints that the situation in the country will be controlled.
Recently, the sustained price of PX has provided a strong cost support for PTA.
It is estimated that the production cost of PTA will be around 9700 yuan. According to the average profit distribution of PTA manufacturers in 2010, the normal price of PTA spot price should be between 10700 and 11000 yuan.
It can be seen that the current PTA futures price of 11000 to 11500 yuan can still be maintained, and the 10000 yuan integer pass should be the strong supporting position of PTA futures.
In addition, the good performance of PTA also comes from high cotton price. As a direct substitute for cotton, polyester products are directly driven by cotton prices, especially polyester and short products blended with cotton.
At present, cotton is back to 33000. If the normal price ratio of 2-2.5 is calculated, the reasonable price of current PTA should be 13000-16000. That is to say, the current price of PTA is not over estimated relative to cotton price.
On the spot, East China PTA
On the cautious side, the seller's quotation is near 11900 yuan / ton, with the futures going down, buyers' enquiry attitude is cautious, the actual negotiation is launched near the 11800-11850 yuan / ton, and there is a scarce market.
The Asian PTA spot market is slowing down. PTA futures are going up and down. Buyers are cautious. The price of Taiwan's cargo is near $1490 / tonne, and the actual talks begin near $1480 / ton, and the market is dull.
Downstream, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the sales of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have gradually returned to normal, and polyester chips have gradually been on the right track.
The market of staple fiber in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is rising. The mainstream quotation in the market is 15000-15500 yuan / ton. The focus of discussion is 14400-14600 yuan / ton, the upstream raw material market is rising, and the staple market quotation is rising.
After the opening of the polyester factory, the quotation continued to rise. The overall increase was 200-500 yuan / ton, and the actual turnover was relatively mild.
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