PTA, with the annual flavor of offering a new year's gift to investors, has successfully stabilized 12000 points.
Although spot prices and futures prices have exceeded the forecast point of market participants, we believe that under the environment of inflation, the PTA industry chain is facing a new round of pricing. Under the current trend is more obvious, it is the best policy to take advantage of the trend.
The driving force of PTA price rise mainly comes from four aspects:
High inflation, short recovery, tight supply of PX, tight supply and demand of PTA, any factor of these four factors can push or pull PTA prices up.
Driving one: cotton price is not the highest but only higher.
The increase in cotton prices in 2010 should be said to be a result of multiple factors.
The domestic cotton planting area has been reduced, and the main cotton production area has been relatively low due to weather reasons. Up to now, the supply and demand situation of domestic cotton market is still not balanced.
In the international market, cotton demand has been greater than output for 15 consecutive years, and last year, the cotton production in the main cotton producing areas of the world has been affected by disaster factors, which has led to a rapid rise in cotton prices.
Before May this year, with Brazil new cotton listed, downstream demand entered the off-season, cotton prices may be rational return, but affected by cost and other factors, cotton prices in 27000 yuan / ton support is obvious.
In the first quarter, cotton prices may be rising steadily, thanks to the strong demand for downstream and the no additional supply of international cotton.
For cotton linkage with the most obvious PTA, cotton prices will drive PTA prices continue to rise.
Polyester and short
Business cycle is coming
The chain of "cotton polyester short PTA" has also contributed a lot to the rise of PTA since the second half of last year. The decrease in cotton production will affect the output of viscose staple fiber.
The rise in cotton prices has led to an increase in demand for polyester staple fibres. The price of PET staple fiber has also seen a surge in the price of cotton since September 2010. The price has increased from 9670 yuan / ton to 19800 yuan / ton, or up to 105%.
Historically, the price difference between polyester staple and cotton is about 4300 yuan / ton. In February 12th, the price of lint cotton in Shandong was 28700 yuan / ton, the price of polyester short was 15000 yuan / ton, and the price difference was 13700 yuan / ton. This price difference is unreasonable.
In the context of high cotton prices, polyester staple fiber still has a larger room for improvement.
Driver three: PX tight supply
Internationally, although aromatics products demand for good, but the cracking plant start-up rate has been difficult to improve.
In 2009, the domestic PX capacity was concentrated, and it was basically released in 2010. At the end of the year, the overall supply of PX was tight.
Recently, PX prices continue to be strong due to the failure of some PX devices at home and abroad.
PX price increases provide strong support for PTA.
Driver four: first half year
Tight supply and demand
In the first half of 2011, a large number of new pet installations started, which coincided with the new peak production capacity of PTA in the second half of the year, leading to a tight supply of PTA in the first half of the year.
Before the Spring Festival, PTA continued to rise, and stocked up before the lower reaches of the festival. However, due to the sharp decline of terminal loom load during the holiday period, the demand for polyester had a certain impact. However, due to the profit of polyester enterprises in the second half of last year, even if some inventory backlogs did not affect the production enthusiasm of polyester enterprises.
The latest textile industry operation report released by the textile industry association shows that in the sensitive time period before and after the Spring Festival, the operation of the textile industry is still ideal. Although the recruitment difficulties still exist, the quantity, stock and start-up rate of the enterprises are at a normal level.
We believe that policy adjustment and control factors will not make PTA rise smoothly. However, under the pattern of sustained economic recovery, driven by the above four factors, PTA still has room for growth.